Gun Sales Record: October 2016 NICS Breaks 2015 Record by 350,000

October, 2016 continued the record breaking pace to become the year with the most gun sales ever. The 2016 NICS checks are far ahead of those for 2015, the previous record holder. In October 2016 there were 2,333,539 National Instant Checks done.  In 2015, the  number done in October were 1,976,759.

In 2015, the total NICS checks for the year were 23,141,970 .  In 2016, through October, they were 22,206,233.  That is less than 1 million below the total for 2015, with the two biggest months in 2016 yet to happen.  Last year there were 17,584,346 by the end of October.

The numbers are 26.3% ahead of where 2015 was at this time.  If this pace continues, 2016 will end up with 29.2 million background checks for the year.

There are 15 years where we can compare the NICS background checks to the actual addition to the private firearms stock, as reported to the ATF.  During that period there have been about .6 firearms added for each NICS check.

The NICS checks are done for more than new firearms.  They are done for used firearms as well. They are done when trade ins are sold at gun shops or when used guns are sold at gun shows.  NICS checks are done for gun carry permits, which are also breaking records every month.  In most states, once a person has a carry permit, further NICS checks are not required to purchase a firearm.

We will not know exactly how many guns have been added to the private stock in 2016 until late January, 2018.  The numbers will not be reported to the ATF until the end of 2016. The ATF is required by law to hold them from public view for a year, to prevent proprietary information from being released.

It is easy to see how one manufacturer would like to know exactly how many guns of certain models and calibers their competitors are selling.

Given the NICS numbers, there will probably be 17 to 18 million guns added to the private stock in 2016.  That would increase the total number to 405 - 406 million private firearms in the United States.

The private firearm stock in the United States will have increased by nearly 100 million firearms, or 30%, during the two terms of the Barack Obama presidency.

To reach that number there will need to be 7 million more NICs checks done in 2016 from, 1 November to 31 December.  In 2015, 5.56 million NICS checks were done in that period.

If Hillary Clinton is elected in a week, I predict that we will exceed that number.  If Donald Trump is elected, NICS checks will drop. How much is uncertain.

The record rate of NICS checks picked back up in October, after slowing a little in August and September.

Many indicators show a soaring and  diverse level of gun ownership.  Carry permits are burgeoning, approaching 15 million and more.  Gun ownership among women and minorities is at an all time high.

Who would have thought that President Barack Obama would be the record setting, all time champion, gun salesman?  The total NICS checks will reach over 250 million by years end.  That will be over 150 million firearms added to the private stock in the last 18 years. Over 37% of the private firearms stock will be less than 18 years old.


©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.

Link to Gun Watch