Trump Era NICS Backround Check hit new All time Record for March

The March number of National Instant background Criminal Checks hit an all time record.  The 2018 numbers in the chart are from the second year of the Trump Presidency.

The number of checks in March, 2018 was 2,767,699. That is 245,000 more than in 2016, the previous all time record for of 2,523,265.  The number of checks for the first quarter of 2018 is 7,131,422. That is 6% higher than the first quarter of 2017.

It is obvious that the all out push for bans on rifles, accessories such as detachable magazines and trick stocks, has re-ignited the concerns of those who refuse to be disarmed.

It is not an unreasonable concern, considering Justice Stevens called for a repeal of the Second Amendment. President Trump has only been able to appoint one Supreme Court Justice. One or two more originalist and textualists justices are necessary to secure the Second Amendment.

Legislators and most of the Media and Democrats are calling for banning the sale of the most popular rifle in the United States, the AR-15.  President Trump seemed to falter, then regained his support for the Second Amendment.

NICS checks are related to the number of guns added to the private stock in the United States, but are not the same for a number of reasons. Many NICS checks are done for previously owned guns. Those numbers do not add to the private stock. More NICS checks are done for carry permits. Kentucky does a NICS check on every carry permit holder in the state, every month. More than one gun can be purchased on one NICS check. Many carry permit holders are not required to undergo a NICS check to purchase a firearm.

Because of all these factors, the number of firearms added to the private stock in the U.S. for each NICS check varies. The average, over 20 years, is about .6 firearms added for each NICS check.

A good approximation of the number of guns added to the private stock in the United States in March, 2018, would be 1.7 million.

The number of privately owned guns in the United States is about 420 million. The number will probably reach 430 million by the end of 2018.  Most estimates of private gun ownership in the United States stop at about 2006, before the Obama administration. Over 100 million guns have been sold or imported into the United States since that time.

The estimate of 420 million privately owned guns in the United States was made using the techniques pioneered by  Newton and Zimring, which includes the calculation of the 1945 number of modern guns added to the stock from 1899 to 1945.  Firearms manufactured before 1899 were not included.

From 1945 to 1987, the data was taken from "Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America" by Gary Kleck, Table 2.1.   The methodology used by Kleck was applied to  the figures obtained from the ATF for later years.  The number shown is the cumulative addition of domestic manufacture plus imports minus exports.

This does not count guns shipped to the U.S. military.  While attrition of guns from wear and destruction is not accounted for, it is assumed that illegal importation, the sale of millions of surplus firearms from the U.S. military, and guns made non-comercially in small shops and at home, make up for those loses.

The numbers added to the private stock for 2017 and 2018 were estimated from the NICS numbers.

©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch