NICS for November, 2023: Third Highest Gun Sales, Fourth Highest Background Checks

The gun sales and National Instant background Check System (NICS) checks continue the trend in 2023 of the third or fourth highest month on record, and the ongoing trend of over a million guns sold during the month. The National Shooting Sports Foundation has reported gun sales, as estimated from NICS, have been over 1 million a month for 52 months.

The November 2023 gun sales are about 1.56 million firearms. The November NICS checks are about 2.65 million, making them the third highest gun sales for November and the fourth highest NICS checks. Gun sales in November of 2021 were 1.51 million, November of 2022 were 1.49 million, and November of 2023 were 1.56 million. Those numbers are similar. In the presidential election year Novembers, the gun sales were a bit higher. In 2016 there they were 1.62 million and in 2020, 1.92 million. It seems likely firearms sales will rise in the coming presidential election year of 2024. NICS background checks vary considerably as a multiple of gun sales. This is because NICS checks are used for multiple purposes, and multiple gun sales can be done with one NICS check.

There have been about 13.57 million gun sales in 2023 so far, using the NICS numbers. In December there will probably be another 1.7 million gun sales, for a total of over 15 million guns sold through the NICS in 2023.

In spite of inflation, technology has increased productivity to the point serviceable guns can be purchased for relatively little labor. On sale, a serviceable AR15 type rifle has been seen for less than $400. A serviceable 9mm pistol has been on sale for under $200, .22 semi-automatic rifles for under $150, .22 semi-automatic pistols for under $200, and 12 gauge pump shotguns for under $200. 100 dollars spent in 2023 is roughly equivalent to 1 dollar spent in 1900. In terms more people can relate to, 100 dollars spent in 2023 is equivalent to about seven dollars spent in 1973.  In 1973, the cheapest Marlin semi-auto .22 was advertised at $57.95. They could likely be picked up, on sale, for $40, which would be about $571 in 2023 dollars.

Low prices in constant dollars is one of the reasons for a rise in base gun sales over the last four years. Another is an increasing acceptance of gun ownership and the utility of guns for defense of self and others. A third is the increasingly chaotic conditions reflected in urban crime statistics and international affairs. A fourth is inflation and the expectation of a rise in prices.

Ammunition prices are expected to increase in January of 2024. Vista Outdoors announced price increases based on a forecast shortage of gunpowder.  Anticipating price increases in 2024 could boost December sales. Guns and ammunition are durable. Guns last for centuries with a little care. Ammunition lasts for many decades. Both are inflation hedges. Both can be used for practical purposes. Both can be bartered for other items.

Analysis:

If the United States regains political stability and the international situation becomes more stable (the two are highly related), this correspondent expects constant dollar gun and ammunition prices to stabilize. Gun sales will drop as the market readjusts. If chaos and uncertainty continue, as seems likely, gun sales will continue at the new normal, or they will rise, unless stopped by governmental action.

©2023 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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