The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), created by John Lott, has published research on the ratio of active shooting attacks by people who are mentally confused about their gender identity, commonly referred to as "transgender". In 2024, according to the CRPC research, "trans" were 12 times as likely to commit an active shooting attack compared to the population as a whole.
In 2024, Politifact published an article claiming that mass shooting by "trans" people is a small number of all mass shootings. As the CPRC research points out, this does not tell us if people who identify as "trans" are more or less likely to engage in mass murder or attempted mass murder than the population at large. As is common in discussions of violence and statistics, the way you define the variables makes all the difference in how the numbers shake out. Considering broad definitions of "terrorism" or "gun violence" will give a significantly different result than considering more precise definitions of active shooting attacks or mass killing. Another important variable is what time frame is considered.
The variables most important to determine if "trans" people are over-represented in active shooting attacks are the total number of active shooting attacks, the number committed by "trans" people, and the percentage of "trans" people in the population as a whole. The numbers can be refined by looking at particular population sub-groups if there is enough data. All of these numbers can be manipulated by changes in definition. When conducting statistical research, it is extremely important to use precise definitions.
The research published by the CRPC does a good job of carefully defining the numbers it uses, and the definitions which are used. The CRPC study examines both active shooting and mass killing with the traditional FBI definitions. It uses estimates of the percentage of "trans" people in the population from the Center for Disease Control, a Gallup survey in 2021, and the Census. The numbers vary from .5% to 1% in the period studied. The numbers appear to be rising. The study only looks at the period from 2018 through 2024. The study does not speculate about the causes of the increase in the percentage of people who identify as "trans".
The CRPC study also looks at the age distribution of "trans", finding that most "trans" active shooters are concentrated in age groups younger than 30 years old. The CRPC study cites research showing "trans" people have much higher levels of suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts, about 10-20 times higher than the rest of the population. That is not 10-20%. It is about 10 times the percentage of people considering suicide than the general population. It is about 20 times the percentage of attempted suicides compared to the percentage attempting suicide in the general population.
The research by the CRPC is a welcome counterpoint to articles which work hard to show people who identify as "trans" as less violent than non-trans people. The CRPC research does not examine the motives of "trans" people involved in active shooting incidents.
Analysis: It is not surprising that a population which takes significant amounts of powerful drugs, who are not happy with their bodies, who attempt suicide at 20 times the percentage of the population as a whole, could commit crimes against society at much higher levels than the general population.
©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
Gun Watch
Are you at all curious why alleged trans acts of violence exploded in 2024 compared to all other years prior to this one? I'm guessing that trans treatments / medications have not appreciably changed in the past 20 years, so it's unlikely that these things have spiked incidents.
ReplyDeleteWhat has changed is that Republicans, Christian conservatives, and uber-wealthy conservative activists have declared war on trans people, and are taking active steps to erase them from society. The most powerful man on the planet, Donald Trump, has labeled them "public enemy number one", and is actively pushing legislation that prevents us from being able to take advantage of the only treatments that actual doctors have determined stand the best chance of allowing us to live a healthy, productive, satisfying life. Further, these very activists are sending a message to everyone else that it's ok to hate, insult, belittle and disrespect a powerless minority, and in some cases violently assault or even murder anyone who opposes their efforts. I'm betting if the world put that kind of pressure on Republicans, cops, or gun owners, the violence attributed to them would explode as well. In short, the right has a great deal of culpability in this alleged increase.
Have any of you set aside your bias, your preconceived notions, and your attitudes and actually talked to a trans person? Have you talked to a family with a trans kid? Talked to the actual medical professionals who treat these folks, as opposed to the political operators posing as medical staffers, parents and patients who have an axe to grind? Or are your posts merely political manipulation and the spreading of propaganda?
I expected better from the likes of John Lott, and Ammoland.