Friday, July 15, 2016

One in a "billion" Shot? Try a Quarter of a Million to One.

An extraordinary shot from a Colorado gunfight is being described as a "one in a billion" shot.  The shot is extraordinary, but the odds are much better than a billion to one.  It is fairly common for people in a gun fight to get hit in the gun arm or gun hand, or for their firearm to be hit.  The gun is usually out front, facing the person who they are firing at and or who is fireing at them.  People tend to equate the gun with the threat, so they focus on the gun hand.  Where the eyes look, the bullets tend to go. From

In an exchange of gunfire that left him seriously wounded, Marquez hit one suspect in the leg, and another of his .45-caliber bullets made a “one in a billion” shot, according to a letter Orman wrote to Jefferson County Sheriff Jeff Shrader and Aurora Police Chief Nick Metz.

That round traveled up the barrel of the attacker’s gun, colliding with a cartridge in the chamber and rendering the .40-caliber pistol inoperable, the letter said.
Let us do a quick calculation of the odds.  If the barrel is facing the threat, the bullet has to hit the barrel fairly close to the center for it or a significant fragment to travel down the bore.  A reasonable assumption would be that the center of the bullet would have to hit within .1 inches of the center of the bore.

It is reasonable to believe that an average person would be able to keep his shots within a four foot square at pistol fighting distances.  An expert should do much better; If you are in the top 1%, I would expect you to keep them with in one foot square.  But everyone cannot be in the top 1%.  48"x48" gives us a bit less than a quarter of a million .1 x .1 inch squares.

So the odds of the shot are about a quarter million to one. If you are in the top 1%, those odds drop to about 15,000 to one.  But that would presume that you would be aiming for the gun.  An expert usually aims for the heart or the spine.  Those targets are much more likely to stop an assailant with a gun from pulling the trigger.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Link to Gun Watch


Wireless.Phil said...


19 year old burned alive.

Suspect in Jessica Chambers case enters not guilty plea

Jackson Clarion Ledger-6 hours ago

HERNANDO -- A man accused of committing the notorious burning death of a Mississippi teen in 2014 entered a not guilty plea in court Friday.

Ben Langlotz said...

Dean, I beat you by a day on the same analysis, using about the same numbers as your top 1% analysis. Great minds think alike!