Saturday, July 08, 2017

NICS Background Checks Continue High for June, 2017



The Trump era of the National Instant Criminal Background  Check System  (NICS) checks has finished its first six months.

The NICS checks for June, 2017 were 1,901,768.  That is the second highest number of NICS checks for any June. The highest was in 2016, with 2,131,485. The third highest June was in 2015, with 1,529,057.  Both of those were driven by fear that strong gun control measures might be passed by President Obama. 

Firearm sales and NICS checks have not dropped precipitously with a Trump presidency as expected.  Instead, gun sales and NICS checks have stayed at high, near record, or record levels in 2017.  The total background checks for the first half of 2017 are 12,601,102.  That is on track to be higher than any other previous year, except for 2017, which has the current record. The June, 2017 NICS checks are 89% of the 2017 figures.

The high number of NICS checks reflects an expanded base of firearms owners and shooters who are buying more guns under the expectation of a prosperous Trump Presidency. 

The firearms inventory is high, with many manufacturers lowering prices.  AR 15 type rifles have become the most popular rifle in America. Prices have plummeted. A base AR 15 can be purchased for under $500.  Ammunition prices are falling back toward where they were before President Obama.

The number of people with carry licenses continues to soar. There are over 15 million. At the time of this report, the number has likely surpassed 16 million. They are 5-15% of voters in many states, some crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. When a carry permit is obtained or renewed, another NICS check is done.


Kentucky contributes to the number of NICS checks by performing a NICS check on every Kentucky concealed carry permit holder every month. Kentucky performs nearly three million checks every year.

The fear of violence from the Left, as shown in Berkley, Portland, the District of Columbia, and San Francisco, may be leading to more firearm sales.

The media propaganda against President Trump has driven people on the left to buy guns and ammunition.

There has been a gradual increase in the use of NICS for things other than firearm sales.  The increases are for such transactions as the sales of suppressors/silencer, and even checks on school teachers.

The average ratio, of the number of NICS checks to additions of firearms to the private stock in the United States, over 15 years, is a little less than .6 NICS checks per firearm.

If that ratio holds true, over 7.5 million guns were added to the private stock in the first half of 2017.

The expected drop in firearms sales has been minimal. Sales are at historical high levels, only a little less than the records set in 2016.  If the economy continues to pick up, 2017 could become a record year for NICS checks.

 ©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

2 comments:

Chris Weingarten said...

The high number of NICS checks reflects an expanded base of firearms owners and shooters who are buying more guns under the expectation of a prosperous Trump Presidency. 

Political unrest could cause people to think they need to be prepared for anything. If the economy does a down turn or if family incomes are adversely affected by rising medical costs with lower if any insurance, there will be more illicit acts to obtain money to fill that need or exact revenge.
It doesn’t have to be solely the Right who is afraid of what the Left may do, it is just as likely that it is equal fearfulness. Aggressive behavior is on an uptick.

It would be interesting to see what the NICS check percentages are per political party.

Btw in Texas, teachers have been subject to fingerprinting, later digital palmprint and other background checks for at least 25 years. (New Jersey, per a friend, for even longer.) You want to volunteer in a school, you need a background check now. Want to renew your Driver’s License, digital palmprint. ‘The State’ wants to keep a closer check on the people it’s protecting.

btw btw Have a Happy Day tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I wonder what trumps action concerning California's magazine ban will have on sales? I hear a conservative judge ruled the magazine ban unconstitutional and in violation of the second amendment. that ruling could have wide ranging effect on other states and other second amendment violations.