NICS February 2025 Firearm Sales and NICS Checks Down

 The National Instant background Check System (NICS) for February 2025 shows a drop in both Firearm sales and in overall background checks. Firearm sales are down about nine percent from 2024. NICS background checks are down about five percent from February of 2024.  Handgun and "multiple" sales moved up a bit from January to  February while long gun and "other"  sales dropped a bit. In the graphic below, the lines are for 2024. The bars are for 2025.

President Trump has been in his second term in office for over a month.  The rapid pace of corrections produced by the Trump administration signals a strong turn away from the destructive and radical policies of the Biden administration. During the first Trump term, firearms sales dropped a bit, largely because prospective gun buyers believed President Trump was not nearly as hostile to the Second Amendment as a President Hillary Clinton would have been. In President Trump's Second term the contrast is even greater.

This month is another month where over 1 million firearms were sold, according to the NSSF adjusted figures based on the FBI NICS numbers. According to the NSSF numbers, February 2025 is the 67th consecutive month where over 1 million firearms were sold.  Sales of firearms generally slump a bit in January, after the Christmas sales in December. While February is three days shorter than January or December (except for leap years), February sales track higher than January, on average. February NICS checks have been higher than those in January in 20 of the 26 years recorded in NICS.

Significant change tends to disrupt existing systems and markets. It takes time for them to readjust. The significant reforms desired by President Trump and called for during his campaign will create some disruption and pain as they are implemented. It is best to implement the changes at the start of an administration, so the pain will be felt earlier and the beneficial effects can start to be observed before the next election. President Trump and his cabinet are working to move members of the workforce from unproductive jobs in the Federal government to productive jobs in the private sector.

During the last 16 years, about 210 million firearms have been added to the stock of private firearms in the United States. Firearms are very durable goods. With modest care they can last for hundreds of years. Improvements in ammunition and firearms metallurgy have added to the potential useful life of firearms. Smokeless powder makes the maintenance of firearm bores easier, as has the transition from corrosive primers to non-corrosive primers. Those improvement occurred at about 1900 and 1950, as rough markers. Since the 1960's stainless steel has taken an increasing portion of the firearms market. Surface treatments which are tougher and more protective than blueing or controlled rusting, such as cerakoting, more durable plating technologies, parkerizing and black nitride are likely to increase longevity. Composite stocks tend to be stronger than wood stocks, per pound. It is not as clear composite stocks will last longer, but it seems plausible.

Longer lives for firearms would be expected to dampen demand. To counter that trend, firearms are cheaper, on a constant dollar basis than every before.

 

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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