Tucson Pays for Scofflaw Actions to Destroy Guns

In September, 2017, the City of Tucson taxpayers agreed to pay the State of Arizona for the legal fees required to stop the City Council from violating State law.  The Council had required that legal, valuable firearms be destroyed rather than sold for the benefit of the public.

In 2012, Arizona made the wasteful practice of destroying valuable firearms illegal for local governments. From AZCDL.org:

This legislation was a follow-up to a 2010 law that required forfeited firearms to be sold to authorized dealers and not be scrapped. Unfortunately, there was a provision in the law that allowed local jurisdictions to determine the disposition of forfeited firearms they acquired. Sadly, this resulted in the loss of revenue to many police departments, short of cash because of ideology based decisions to destroy these firearms. Under the new law, after 60 days unclaimed firearms that can be legally owned must be sold to a business authorized to receive and dispose of fire-arms under state and federal law, for sale to the public. Law enforcement agencies also have the option to trade forfeited firearms to federally licensed dealers for guns, ammo or other law enforcement equipment.

The Council become scofflaws in 2012. Over the next few years they destroyed hundreds of thousands of dollars of valuable property. In addition, they wasted City money in a needless court battle with the State of Arizona. From tucson.com:

A settlement with Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich will have the city of Tucson shelling out $100,000 to cover the state’s legal fees for the court fight that ended the city’s practice of destroying seized firearms.

The figure is identical to the amount the city had estimated it would earn annually in auctioning seized firearms to licensed gun dealers.

The City Council spent tens of thousands more dollars fighting the state before the case went to the Arizona Supreme Court.  It spent thousands to illegally destroy the 4,820 firearms from 2013 to 2016. Those firearms could have been sold for about a half a million dollars.

A reasonable estimate is that the Tucson City Council wasted $750,000 for nothing more than making propaganda to show they disapprove of the private ownership of guns.

The seven Democrats on the city council do not have a problem wasting other people's money. 

There are the deep pockets of Democrat donors, such as former Mayor, Michael Bloomberg. He has spent hundreds of millions of dollars attempting to undermine the Second Amendment. Democrats who demonstrate their deep commitment to destroying firearms, might obtain some of that money for their relection campaigns.

It will be interesting to see if any of Michael Bloomberg's money ends up in the campaign coffers of Tucson City Council.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

More Realtors Carry Guns for Safety

25% of men and 12% of women members of The National Association of Realtors (NAR) carry self defense firearms, according to the 2017 safety report. The number of members who carried a firearm totaled 19%.

The organization has published safety reports that show how many member carry weapons since 2015.

In 2014 real estate agent Beverly Carter was kidnapped and murdered. The crime made national news.  The president elect of the National Association of Realtors vowed to make safety a priority. From cnn.com:

Carter was killed in September, "Realtor Safety Month," for the National Association of Realtors.

The group's president elect, Chris Polychron, has promised to make safety a priority when he takes office.

"We're not going to let it die, I can tell you that," he said. "It's sad that it took a tragic death of one of our own to run the red flag up."

An article from 2014 reported this step as being recommended by the National Association of Realtors:

10. Don’t assume that everyone has left the premises at the end of an open house. Check all of the rooms and the backyard prior to locking the doors. Be prepared to defend yourself, if necessary.

The man who murdered Beverly Carter was convicted in January of 2015.

Chris Polychron took office as president of NAR in 2015. The NAR conducted the first survey showing how many of its members carried weapons. In 2015, 12% of members reported they carried a gun. From therealdaily.com:

Interestingly, according to the National Association of REALTORS® 2015 Member Safety Report, 12 percent of agents who responded said that they already carry a gun in the field.

 In 2016, 16% of members reported they carried a gun. Now, in 2017, 19% of members say they carry a gun. The increase in carrying guns for self defense is a national trend. The number of states that respect the Second Amendment has been growing steadily. The number of people with concealed carry permits has surged in the last few years. There is a growing movement for Constitutional Carry, where no permits for carry are required.

According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, there were 12.83 million concealed carry permits in the United States in 2015, 14.53 million concealed carry permits in 2016, and 16.36 concealed carry permits in 2017.  The number of concealed carry permits has grown 27% since 2015. The number of NAR members carrying guns has followed that trend, but has grown twice as fast, increasing 58% since 2015.

About three times as many NAR members carry guns as do people in the general population. The estimate of the general population that carry guns most or all of the time is about 5.4%, with 6.5% of the population having concealed carry permits.

It is likely that some of the NAR members do not need permits to carry concealed firearms. Fourteen states do not require a permit to carry concealed guns in 2017.  That system is commonly called Constitutional carry.  There were seven states that did not require a permit to carry in 2015.

Realtors reflect a population that has similarities to people with concealed carry permits. The tend to be better educated than average, have above average income, and are very responsible people. It is not surprising that they carry defensive guns at a rate greater than the rest of the population.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

GA: Armed Victim Shoots, Kills, 1 of 2 Armed Teen Suspects

The 44-year-old man told investigators a white Lexus with Florida tags pulled next to him in the 5800 block of Cedar Croft Lane near Lithonia.

Two teens jumped out of the vehicle and attempted to rob the man at gunpoint, DeKalb police spokeswoman Shiera Campbell said Thursday.

That, police said, is when the man pulled out his own gun, shot one of teens and called 911.

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IL: Armed Customer Shoots Armed Robbery Suspect

DOLTON, Ill. (WLS) -- A suspect was shot Wednesday night during an attempted armed robbery at an auto parts store in south suburban Dolton. A customer said the suspect ran at him with a weapon, so he opened fire.

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KY: Domestic Defense, Ex Girlfreind Kills Man who Broke Her Face

The girlfriend had a warrant out for Endicott's arrest.

News outlets report troopers say 35-year-old Brandon Endicott entered Krystal Shepherd’s home in a Floyd County trailer park Tuesday morning. KSP says Shepherd shot Endicott, who left and was found dead in a neighboring yard. A stray bullet went into a neighboring trailer.
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Black Women Carrying Guns in Chicago part of National Trend

A recent article in the Chicago Tribune detailed the experiences of a black woman who obtained a concealed carry permit in Chicago. The article is surprisingly positive about her experiences. An important point is that minority women make up a significant percentage of the growth in concealed carry permits nationwide. From chicagotribune.com:

Robinzine, 51, is a gun owner with a concealed carry license. Since she received her permit in late spring, she carries her firearm wherever she goes.

"It's like a part of me now," Robinzine said with the smile.

Data show Robinzine is part of a burgeoning group in Cook County: black women obtaining concealed carry permits. Since Illinois began issuing licenses in 2014, the number of African-American women receiving a permit in Cook County has grown every year.

About 800 black women got a license in 2014, according to Illinois State Police. So far in 2017, nearly 1,400 black women have received a concealed carry permit — already more than all of 2016. In all, more than 4,000 black women have received a concealed carry license in Cook County.

4,000 black women with permits to carry guns for self defense may not seem like a lot in Cook County, Illinois. The County, dominated by Chicago, has a population of 5.2 million. That is less than one legally armed black woman on the streets for each thousand residents.

Illinois was the last state to allow for legal concealed carry of handguns, in 2014. Chicago fought against the exercise of Second Amendment rights and continues to do so. It took two Supreme Court decisions (Heller and McDonald) and a Seventh Circuit decision to force the Illinois Legislature to pass the law.

Permits have only been issued for three years. The growth in permits for blacks and women has been highlighted in research of the Crime Prevention Research Center. From the CRPC:

There are now over 16.3 million permit holders, a record 1.83 million increase in permits since last July. Nationwide, 6.5% adults have a concealed handgun permit. Outside of California and New York, 8 percent of adults have a permit. Permits for women and blacks are increasing much faster than they are for men and whites.

Black women with guns destroy the stereotype that guns are only for old white men.  John Lott's research shows that the utility of guns for defense against violent crime is greater in high crime areas. From the 1996 paper:

For most violent crimes such as murder, rape, and aggravated assault concealed weapons laws have a much greater deterrent effect in high crime counties, while for robbery, property crimes, auto theft, burglary, and larceny the effect appears to be greatest in low crime counties.

The result may seem obvious now. Recall that in 1996, the "common sense" assumption in the national media was that more guns caused more crime. The assumption has been derailed as the per capita number of firearms in the United States has increased from .89 in 1993 to 1.125 in 2015, while the homicide rate dropped in half. In addition, people with concealed carry permits have shown themselves to be extremely law abiding, much more than the general population, and more than police officers.

The highest densities of black women live in high crime areas. Chicago is a classic example.  It is not surprising that black women are discovering the utility of the legal carry of defensive firearms.
 

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

LA: Armed Neighbors Capture Burglars

"Grabbed my pistol check my property," the neighbor said.

When checking his property he found one of the suspects in his backyard bushes.

"I told him don't move or i will shoot and he didn't move."

He said police showed up shortly after that.

the neighbor says, "the adrenaline, just fear you know for the safety of my wife not necessarily myself ...But uh just trying to protect everything."

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UT: Dog Shooting was in Self Defense

The man reportedly pulled out a handgun and fired several shots after the two dogs began fighting and biting his dog. He told officers that he fired the gun in the direction of the dogs but hadn’t intended to hit either of them.

One of the pit bulls was struck, the bullet entering its shoulder and out of its neck. The dog was taken to a veterinary clinic for treatment.
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August Gun Background Checks High in Trump Era

The Trump era of the National Instant Criminal Background  Check System  (NICS) checks has had eight months of high sales.  The record for NICS checks was set in 2017, with over 27 million NICS checks for the year. 2015 was the second highest year for NICS Checks with over 23 million checks done.

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) checks were 1,925,146 in August of 2017.  There were 16,268,794 since January 1, more checks than all of 2010. In 2016 the number was 17,880,475 at the end of August. Through August, 2015, they were 13,812,485.  The 2017 August figure is 1.04% of the 2016 NICS checks and 110% of the 2015 NICS checks.

Firearm sales and NICS checks are having a good year. The overall NICS checks are at 92% of the all time record through August.  2017 is looking to surpass 2015 as the second highest year for number of NICS checks, since NICS started in 1999.

The high number of NICS checks reflects an expanded base of firearms owners and shooters who are buying more guns under the expectation of a prosperous Trump Presidency. Gallup released a poll on September 8th, that shows U.S. investor optimism at a 17 year high. From gallup.com:

A new surge of optimism among U.S. investors has pushed the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index to its highest level since September 2000. The index, after rising in every quarter since the start of 2016, leveled off in the second quarter at +124 before rising to its current +138 in the third quarter.

The latest boost in optimism pushes the index almost 100 points higher than the +40 score measured in February 2016. The 98-point hike over the past 18 months is the largest increase in the 20-year history of the index that is not a rebound immediately after a major drop in optimism.

There is a high inventory of firearms for sale, and many good quality AR-15 types can be had for under $500. Ammunition prices have been slowly dropping.

The number of people with carry licenses continues to soar. There are over 16.5 million. At the time of this report, the number has likely surpassed 17 million. Carry permit holders are 5-15% of voters in many states, some crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. When a carry permit is obtained or renewed, another NICS check is done.

Kentucky contributes to the number of NICS checks by performing a NICS check on every Kentucky concealed carry permit holder every month. Kentucky performs nearly three million checks every year.

NICS checks are done for Federal Firearms License sales of used guns as well as new ones. The latest estimation of the ratio of NICS checks to the addition of private firearms stock is about .53 private firearms added for each NICS check done. If that ratio holds in 2017, about 8.6 million more firearms have been added to the private stock in 2017 thus far.

The expected drop in firearms sales has been minimal. Sales are at historical high levels, only a little less than the records set in 2016.  If the economy continues to pick up, 2017 will be the second highest year on record for NICS background checks.
 ©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

July 2017 NICS Continue on Path to Second Highest Year Ever for Gun Sales

The Trump era of the National Instant Criminal Background  Check System  (NICS) checks has had seven months of high sales.  The record for NICS checks was set in 2017, with over 27 million NICS checks for the year.

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) checks were 1,742,546 in July of 2017.  There were 14,346,648 checks since January 1, more checks than all of 2010. In 2016 the number was 16,026,660 at the end of July. Through July, 2015, they were 12,067,075.  The July figure is 79% of the 2016 NICS checks and 108.8% of the 2015 NICS checks.

The NSSF has figured out how to remove checks done for permits and renewals. That gives a much better estimation of the number of new guns sold. Recent calculations by the NSSF show there are about .53 guns sold for each NICS check. That would amount to about another million guns in private hands in July of 2017, and 7.7 million more privately owned guns since the beginning of the year. About 14.7 million were added to the stock in 2016.

The NICS checks for June, 2017 were 1,901,768.  That is the second highest number of NICS checks for any June. The highest was in 2016, with 2,131,485. The third highest June was in 2015, with 1,529,057.  Both of those were driven by fear that strong gun control measures might be passed by President Obama. 

Firearm sales and NICS checks have not dropped precipitously with a Trump presidency as expected.  Instead, gun sales and NICS checks have stayed at high, near record, or record levels in 2017.  The July, 2017 NICS checks are 89% of the 2016 figures, 108.8% of 2015 figures.

The high number of NICS checks reflects an expanded base of firearms owners and shooters who are buying more guns under the expectation of a prosperous Trump Presidency.

There is a high inventory of firearms for sale, and many good quality AR-15 types can be had for under $500. Ammunition prices have been slowly dropping.

The number of people with carry licenses continues to soar. There are over 15 million. At the time of this report, the number has likely surpassed 16 million. They are 5-15% of voters in many states, some crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. When a carry permit is obtained or renewed, another NICS check is done.

Kentucky contributes to the number of NICS checks by performing a NICS check on every Kentucky concealed carry permit holder every month. Kentucky performs nearly three million checks every year.

The fear of violence from the Left, as shown in Berkley, Portland, the District of Columbia, and San Francisco, may be leading to more firearm sales.

The media propaganda against President Trump has driven people on the left to buy guns and ammunition.

There has been a gradual increase in the use of NICS for things other than firearm sales.  The increases are for such transactions as the sales of suppressors/silencer, and even checks on school teachers.

The average ratio, of the number of NICS checks to additions of firearms to the private stock in the United States, over 15 years, is a little less than .6 NICS checks per firearm.

If that ratio holds true, over 7.5 million guns were added to the private stock in the first half of 2017.

The expected drop in firearms sales has been minimal. Sales are at historical high levels, only a little less than the records set in 2016.  If the economy continues to pick up, 2017 could become a record year for NICS checks.

 ©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

WY: Man Tells Matthew Butrick to Stop Assault, Retreats, then Shoots

According to the Sheriff’s Department, Brice Page, 27, allegedly fatally shot Matthew Butrick, 43, in what the Sheriff’s Department is investigating as a case of self-defense. Both men are from Laramie County.

The Sheriff’s Department were informed of a shooting on Saturday, Sept. 9 at about 1:22 p.m. on Forest Service road 701 on Pole Mountain. According to the Sheriff’s Department, Page was driving on the Forest Service road and saw what he thought to be a multicolored truck chasing two people riding ATV’s. The truck allegedly ran the ATV’s off the road and Page saw Butrick, the driver of the truck, leave the truck and begin assaulting one of the ATV riders, who were later revealed to be 15 years old.
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PA: Man Breaks into Home, is Shot, Killed

LOWER PAXTON TOWNSHIP, DAUPHIN COUNTY, Pa -- Police in Dauphin County are investigating a home invasion in which the intruder was shot and killed by the homeowner.

Update: The intruder has now been identified as Servando Santos, 23, of York. Witnesses reported that they saw Santos walk from another home on Fairway lane, where police believe he was involved in a disturbance that left a woman critically injured, to the second home where he was subsequently shot and killed.
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MO: Domestic Defense? Incident under Investigation

The 31-year-old male from Kansas City, Missouri was found to have a non-life-threatening gunshot wound. The man was treated and released by EMS on scene.

Deputies spoke with several people on scene, including the shooter. Deputies say everyone on scene was cooperative. Investigators say at this time, the shooting is being investigated as a possible self-defense incident.
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TX: Permit Holder Shoots Man who Threatened Him

The person who called police said someone ran up to him and threatened to kill him, said Melinda Gutierrez, Dallas police spokeswoman. The caller, who is a concealed handgun owner, shot and killed the person, Gutierrez said.

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LA: Gun Beats Pole

The man, who'd gotten ahead of the picture-taker, was on the phone with authorities and confronted the stranger, asking why he'd photographed the house, Landry said. The homeowner told Landry the picture-taker was armed with a pole and began attacking him.

"He started beating the daylights out of (the homeowner,)" Landry said.

That's when the man told Landry he retrieved his gun and shot the picture-taker.
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NV: Employee Shoots, Kills 1 of 3

A convenience store employee shot and killed a man late Sunday after a confrontation with several people at the east valley business, according to Metro Police.

The shooting happened shortly before midnight at a 7-Eleven in the 4500 block of Vegas Valley Drive, police said.

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VA: Victims Show Gun, Assailants Flee

The attack, in the 8400 block of Stoney Lane, came in the course of an argument, and it apparently ended, according to the police account, when one of the two assault victims showed a gun. A police statement said a victim “brandished a firearm in self-defense and the suspects fled.”
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With all the Flooding: What about Submerged Ammunition?

 Image from Youtube

With the recent impact of two hurricanes, Harvey and Irma, on the United States, there is going to be a lot of ammunition that was submerged for some time. To prevent damage, many people keep ammunition in waterproof ammo cans. They tend to work very well, if the can is not submerged more than a few feet. Not everyone stores ammunition in ammo cans, and the cans can be damaged or leak. The two storms flooded tens of thousands of houses. A recent survey showed that about half of the homes in the United States have a gun owner living in them.  From msn.com:

The organization that sets the standards for firearms and ammunition manufacture in the United States, SAAMI (Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturer's Institute), recommends zero tolerance for ammunition that has been submerged for any period of time. From saami.org:

Regarding ammunition that has been submerged in water for any period of time, there are too many variables that would need to be considered such as the cartridge type (e.g., rimfire, shotshell, centerfire rifle, centerfire handgun); depth of the water; length of time the cartridges were submerged; are the primers on the cartridges sealed providing some degree of water resistance? what contaminates may have been in the water that might affect the powder charge or priming compound? and many others. Some of the potential hazards of attempting to salvage or use the previously submerged ammunition include, but are not limited to: Potential safety hazard in attempting to “dry out” the cartridges. Possible further deterioration or damage of the loaded cartridge or its components due to drying methods. Failure of the cartridge to fire, which could have life-threatening ramifications.

Initiation of only the priming compound or ignition of only a proportion of the propellant powder charge. This may result in insufficient pressure to push the projectile clear of the barrel resulting in the projectile stopping part way down the barrel and creating a bore obstruction. Firing a subsequent round through an obstructed barrel could result in serious bodily injury, death and property damage.

It would be impossible to ascertain for certain the extent of the deteriorating effect, if any, the water may have had on each individual cartridge. Therefore, the safe answer is that no attempt be made to salvage or use previously submerged ammunition. The ammunition should be disposed of in a safe and responsible manner. Do not ship the ammunition back to the manufacturer. Contact your local law enforcement agency for disposal instructions in your area. 

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Destruction of ammunition, on the chance that it might have a misfire or hangfire, or be a squib, may not be an acceptable choice. If it is the only ammunition available, careful firing may be the lesser of evils.

If the ammunition is of military specifications, and has not been submerged more than a few feet, it may be undamaged.

On the other side of the spectrum, I had ammunition that had been through a flood a few years ago. It was ammunition that would be particularly vulnerable: shotgun ammunition reloaded in paper shotgun shells. I had a couple of hundred rounds. It had been submerged for a few days. It was only a few inches under water. I decided to use the shells to hunt dove. I do not consider a missed dove a tragedy.

I let the ammunition dry in the Arizona summer, which is quite dry.

I carefully considered each shot separately.  If there was a problem, I waited and checked out the barrel for a possible obstruction before firing another round. One of the worst dangers of a flood damaged cartridge is the possibility that a projectile will lodge in the bore.  If another round is fired, the damage could be catastrophic.

I had a few misfires. The cartridges simply did not fire. I had a spectacular hangfire. Two doves were crossing my front, left to right, about 35 yards out. I picked one and swung on it. As I slapped the trigger of my 20 gauge double, there was a distinct click...followed by a boom! The dove fell out of the sky.  The hangfire was of short duration, about a quarter of a second, or less.

I checked the bore, even though the shot had killed the dove. It was clear.

If you find yourself where circumstance requires you to use ammunition that has been submerged, realize that misfires, hangfires, and squib rounds are serious possibilities. A squib is a round that does not fully ignite.  A squib can easily lodge a projectile in the bore.

Treat every shot as a potential hangfire, misfire or squib. Those possibilities should be something you are prepared for. If you experience a misfire, keep the muzzle pointed in a safe direction for 30 seconds. Some misfires take a bit of time to become a hangfire.   If anything unusual happens, if the recoil or shot does not seem "right", wait, then check the bore to make sure it is clear.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

International Firearm Ownership and Firearms Homicide Rates

The data for the graphic above was taken from the Guardian, a leftwing publication in England. Firearm ownership rates are from the Small Arms Survey in 2007, so it is a bit dated. The per capita ownership in the United States has gone up considerably since then. It is now about 120 firearms per 100 people. U.S. citizens purchased 94 million firearms during the Obama presidency. They have likely purchased another 6 million in the first 8 months of 2017.  The firearms homicide rate fell from 4.19 in 2007 to 3.45 in 2014, but bumped up to 4.13 in 2015. (numbers from the CDC)

The chart shows that firearms ownership is not related to firearm homicides. That is somewhat misleading. What matters is not firearm homicides, but total homicides. Firearms availability could either increase or decrease total homicides.  I ran the data from the Guardian through a standard statistical calculator to see if there was any correlation between firearm ownership and total homicides.  There wasn't much correlation. The 110 States that had both firearm ownership rates and homicide data were used.

The horizontal axis is the number of firearms per 100 people. The vertical axis is the homicide rate.  As you can see there was only a small negative correlation, of -.137. That is not a strong correlation, but it shows that the homicide rate tends to fall a bit with higher firearms ownership.  It is not statistically significant.

It does not show causation. There could be many other factors involved. For example, the rise in firearms homicides in the United States in 2015 is likely correlated with the Ferguson Effect. Several large cities have essentially withdrawn active policing from urban crime centers because of accusations of racism. Homicides have sharply risen in those areas.  Another reason is general prosperity. Places where there is the rule of law usually have higher prosperity and higher legal firearm ownership rates. Both are associated with lower homicide rates.

The slight negative correlation between firearms ownership and homicides confirms observations made after reading most of the literature on the subject. The rate of firearms ownership has little to do with the overall homicide rate.

If there is a relationship, a higher legal firearms ownership rate means slightly less crime.

This does not mean that firearms are not useful. More likely, it means that people with firearms are less likely to be victims, and people without firearms are more likely to be victims.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

AZ: 69-Year-Old Woman Shoots Man Attempting Break-in

A 69-year-old Sierra Vista woman shot a man she says was trying to break into her house Thursday night, just hours after a burglary there, the Cochise County Sheriff’s Department said.

The wounded man, 26, was in critical condition at a Tucson hospital Friday, said Carol A. Capas, a spokeswoman for the department.
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