Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Chicago Gunshot Lethality 2013 - 2016

If you are shot in Chicago today, what are the odds that the shot will prove fatal?

Chicago offers us a real world count to determine the percentage of people who are shot that die. The limitation is that the numbers are only those that are recorded by the authorities.

The numbers probably undercount minor woundings.  There is significant motivation for people who have received minor wounds from a defensive gun use or during a criminal act, to avoid hospital treatment.  Gunshot wounds are reported to the police in every state.  Criminals know this;  they have a strong incentive to avoid hospital treatment for minor wounds.

The number of people shot and the number killed by gunshot, as reported to the authorities in Chicago, has been closely tracked by a web site titled Hey Jackass!  They have tracked the numbers from 2013 to the present.  Here are their numbers.  From 2013 heyjackass:

In 2013, a total of 2185 were shot, that were recorded.  Of those 375 were killed.  No breakout of self defense shootings were done for 2013.

In 2014, a total of 2619 were shot.  Of those, 390 were killed.  176 of the fatalities were "cleared", that is someone was arrested for the shooting.  There were 5 self defense shootings noted.

In 2015, a total of 2996 were shot.  Of those 445 were killed.  There were 5 official self defense shootings and 144 killings that were "cleared" by an arrest.

In 2016 through May 29, 1514 had been shot and 228 of those were killed. There were 6 homicides declared as justified self defense and 56 arrests.

The number of people shot, from 2013 through May 29th, 2016, was 9314.  Of those, 1438, or 15.4% were killed. The ratio is 1 person killed for each 6.4 people who were shot.

The percentage is amazingly similar to results cited by Philip J. Cook in 1985(pdf).  He wrote that a number of studies indicated that 15% of gun shot victims reported to police, died.  While I have not been able to find the studies cited by Cook, the number from 30 years ago is remarkable consistent with those found in Chicago today.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
Link to Gun Watch

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