Politico is reporting that House Speaker Ryan doesn't have the votes to cave to far left Democrat pressures to gut the Second Amendment. From politico.com:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has dismissed the Cornyn plan as a “toothless NRA bill that will do nothing to keep our communities safe.”"Far-right flank" is "progressive" speak for a vast majority of Republican voters. Those Second Amendment supporters see no reason for Ryan to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Republican bill would put due process in jeopardy, make it appear that the Republican leadership once again caved to squealing and irrational Democrat demands, and failed to do their job against old media pressure.
But hard-line GOP conservatives came out against the leadership bill amid concerns about due process rights. The House Freedom Caucus on Wednesday said it would vote as a bloc against the proposal unless it’s amended. That forced leadership to postpone consideration of the bill, which was slated to hit the floor this week. Ryan and McCarthy hoped a conference meeting would assuage members, but they still don’t appear to have the votes needed, sources say.
In a Thursday whip meeting, leadership told senior lawmakers they wouldn’t be able to take up the bill this week because they were still working through the disagreements with the far-right flank.
What is not stated in the Politico piece is the obvious. To many astute political observers, it is the primary challenge in Speaker Ryan's home district.
According to a recent poll, Ryan's support is down to 43%. Ryan's home district is a safe Republican one. A grass roots conservative challenge is being waged by a popular outsider candidate, Paul Nehlen. The Speaker knows that one good way to get primaried is to appear weak on Second Amendment issues.
There is no reason for the Republicans to waver on Second Amendment votes. The anti-Second Amendment numbers are tiny, and will not vote for a Republican anyway; Second Amendment supporters have long memories and are willing to work hard and open their wallets. This is not seen with anti-Second Amendment activists.
Ryan made a big mistake when he agreed to bring to a vote an ineffectual proposition for no good purpose. Why snatch at what looks like defeat when you have already won?
Backtracking now can help. Will it be enough to keep Ryan from being primaried? We will know in a month. The Wisconsin primary is on August 9th.
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