Gun Sales Surge in June of 2022, NICS Checks Continue Trend

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) checks continued the trend of being the third highest June on record, while gun sales jumped to the second highest June on record. 

The drop in NICS check by almost 500 thousand from last June occurred primarily because of reform of the Firearms Owner IDentification card system in Illinois.  Illinois checks and rechecks for permits dropped by over 400 thousand.

At the same time, gun sales (always an approximation because of the way the NICS system operates) was up by about 8% to 1.35 million. It is far from the record for June set in 2020, when about 2.13 million firearms were sold under NICS, but it is higher than the 1.25 million sold in June last year. For some context, in the record setting year of 2016, about 1.11 million firearms were sold in June. 

As this correspondent predicted last month, firearm sales have risen in June. The most likely cause is the call for restrictive gun legislation in Congress. 

The Supreme Court has decisively ruled in favor of restoring Second Amendment rights in the NYSR&PA v Bruen case. This might dampen the incentive to purchase guns. The problem is both the California Attorney General and the New York Governor and Legislature have decided to give the single fingered salute to the Supreme Court, in regards to the Second Amendment. New York and California are two of only six states which lack a protection of the right to keep and bear arms in their state Constitutions. 

The lawless attitude of those states fuels the general impression in the United States of a break down of the rule of law. This lack of stability directly fuels demand for more guns and ammunition.

The importance of security can override the reduction in spending power brought about by the Biden Administration's inflationary measures. Even though food and fuel prices have seen significant rises in prices due to inflation, most Americans can cut back on expenditures to purchase a pistol or rifle and a couple of boxes of Ammunition.

A good rifle or pistol is easily available for $300 - $500. A hundred rounds of centerfire ammunition is still available from $35 to $50.  $600 for both is only 30 hours of overtime for a minimum wage worker in many states, or a weeks wages for a second job.  A rifle or pistol tends to keep its value. It is as much an inflation hedge as it is an expenditure.

In contrast with fuel and food, prices for guns and ammunition have fallen a bit in the last few months. A $500 basic AR15 style rifle, or .22 ammunition for 6.5 cents a cartridge, may seem like a bargain and a good investment, if the police in your area have been incentivized to stop arresting law breakers and the local, elected prosecutor has declined to prosecute people of the "correct" political attitude.

Ammunition manufacturers have invested heavily in new plant to increase production. That investment is now paying off. The Biden Administration has floated a trial balloon to stop Lake City ammunition overruns from being sold on the commercial market. If such an order takes place, prices of .223/5.56 ammunition will necessarily increase. 

Given the continued uncertainty, lack of domestic stability, lack of international security, and nearly reasonable prices for guns and ammunition, this correspondent will stick with the prediction that July gun sales will be greater in 2022 than in 2021.

©2022 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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