Tuesday, October 04, 2016

September 2016 Continues Record Breaking Gun Sales/NICS Background Checks

In September, 2016 continued on its record breaking pace to become the year with the most gun sales ever.  September has maintained the pace from August. Both months broke records, but by a lower percentage than the rest of 2016.  The 2016 NICS checks are far ahead of those for 2015, the previous record holder.

In 2015, the total NICS checks for the year were 23,141,970 .  In 2015, through September, they were 15,607,587

1,992,219 checks were done in September, 2016 making 19,872,694 checks done for 2016 so far. 

2016 is about two months ahead of the 2015 record.  It is 27.3% ahead of where 2015 was at this time.  If this pace continues, 2016 will end up with 29.5 million background checks for the year.

There are 15 years where we can compare the NICS background checks to the actual addition to the private firearms stock, as reported to the ATF.  During that period there have been about .6 firearms added for each NICS check.

The NICS checks are done for more than new firearms.  They are done for used firearms as well. They are done when trade ins are sold at gun shops or when used guns are sold at gun shows.  NICS checks are done for gun carry permits, which are also breaking records every month.  In most states, once a person has a carry permit, further NICS checks are not required to purchase a firearm.

We will not know exactly how many guns have been added to the private stock in 2016 until late January, 2018.  The numbers will not be reported to the ATF until the end of 2016. The ATF is required by law to hold them from public view for a year, to prevent proprietary information from being released.

It is easy to see how one manufacturer would like to know exactly how many guns of certain models and calibers their competitors are selling.

Given the NICS numbers, there will probably be 18 million guns added to the private stock in 2016.  That would increase the total number to 406 million private firearms in the United States.

The private firearm stock in the United States will have increased by nearly 100 million firearms, or 30%, during the two terms of the Barack Obama presidency.

To reach that number there will need to be 10 million more NICs checks done in 2016 from, 1 October to 31 December.  In 2015, 7.53 million NICS checks were done in that period.

That would be a remarkable achievement.

It is not clear why the rate of NICS checks slowed in August and September.  They are still records.

Many indicators show a soaring and  diverse level of gun ownership.  Carry permits are burgeoning, approaching 15 million and more.  Gun ownership among women and minorities is at an all time high.

Who would have thought that President Barack Obama would be the record setting, all time champion, gun salesman?

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
Link to Gun Watch


mike hartnett said...

Do you have a source for the ~380 million gun #? Writing a paper. Thx

Anonymous said...

If Obama's failed policies are not the reason it would be hard to come up with anything else. we have never had a more impressive idiot in the white house. If Obama does not get us into a shooting war with Russia before he leaves office we will be very lucky. Putin has said he is waiting to see if Hilary is elected. He wants Trump, He has said he thinks he can work with Trump. Obama just cut contact with Russia. Putin does not want war but he is far better prepared than we are. Putin may not like trump but he respects him He thinks Obama is a clown. and Kerry is just stupid.

Dean Weingarten said...

To Mike Hartnett:

This article explains the sources and methodology:


This one shows we are on the path to 400 million: