Monday, July 16, 2018

Trump Era Gun Checks Remain near Record Levels in June of 2018

Many people believed that President Trump would preside over an era of decreasing firearm sales. Firearm sales dropped a little from the record levels in the 2016 presidential election year. They did not drop much. 2017 had the second highest ever yearly total NICS checks.

2018 is trending higher than 2017. In 2017, at the end of June, the total NICS checks were 12,601,112.

2018 is becoming the second highest year on record. In 2016, the all time record year, they were 13,829,491 at the end of June.

In 2018, they have moved up from 2017 and are approaching the 2016 level. The number of checks by the end of June, 13,293,318, is 96% of the all time record.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation, NSSF, has figured out how to adjust NICS checks for purchasing firearms from those used for other purposes.  From
The June 2018 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 892,479 is a decrease of 12.2 percent compared to the June 2017 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1.02 million.

NICS-adjusted checks were down 8.5 percent in May, 4.2 percent in April and increased 10.8 percent in March. And the second-quarter 2018 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 2.9 million reflects a decrease of 8.1 percent compared to the 3.1 million figure for the second quarter of 2017.
We will not know precisely how many of the NICS background checks are for new firearms until a year and a half from now. The BATFE does not release manufacture figures for at least a year after they are submitted to the BATFE.

The BATFE does this to respect the proprietary interest manufacturers have in these number. You can see that many manufacturers would like to know exactly how many of what model their competition is making and selling.

FBI NICS background checks are used to purchase both used and new firearms. They are used to obtain concealed carry permits. They are used to renew concealed carry permits.  They are being used, in some states, to check out gun store personnel or even teachers.

Historically, there are about .6 new firearms added to the national private stock for each NICS check.

If the .6 relationship between checks and new gun sales holds, about eight million new firearms have been added to the private stock in the first six months of 2018. That raises the number of private firearms in the United States to about 426 million firearms.

If the classic annual buying pattern prevails, the total number of private firearms added will be over 15 million in 2018. That would bring the total of private firearms in the United States to about 432 million by the end of the year.

©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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