It appears that today, 28 October, 2018, Jair Bolsonaro is the new President of Brazil. AP reports that with 92 percent of the votes counted, Bolsonaro, the conservative candidate, has 55.6 percent of the vote. From the sun-sentinal.com:
With more than 92 percent of the votes counted, 55.6 percent supported Bolsonaro, compared to 44.4 percent for leftist Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party, according to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Final results were expected later Sunday.AP calls this a "commanding lead". It is mathematically impossible for Jair Bolsonaro to lose, if these numbers are correct. 55.6% of 92% = 51.1% of the vote total.
Many Brazilians do not trust the vote counting. Perhaps AP is justified in waiting for the final count later today.
Jair Bolsonaro has been demonized as an authoritarian, anti-democratic figure, much as Donald Trump has been in the United States. In spite of the media demonization, he has won the Presidency. Popular Youtube commentator, Paul Joseph Watson, interviewed Filipe G. Martins, a Brazilian professor of International Politics.
Martins works at the U.S. embassy and is Director of International Relations of the PSL, Bolsonaro's party, which now is one of the biggest parties in the Brazilian legislature. The interview provides balance to the leftist media portrayal.
The video below is a little over 30 minutes long. I was fascinated by this view into Brazilian society and politics. Martins speaks English well, but he is not a native speaker.
Link to video
Martins explains a situation amazingly similar to what has happened in the United States. The Left in Brazil completely dominates Brazilian Media, academia, and popular cultural institutions. Conservatives in Brazil had no voice.
As the Internet spread, and social media developed, conservatives developed voices on those platforms to allow them to organize and to respond to the overwhelming leftist control of the information flow in Brazil.
In effect, Bolsonaro has been fighting against the entire elite establishment in Brazil. It is very similar to Donald Trump fighting against the entire elite establishment in the United States.
With a huge change in the legislature, and with Jair Bolsonaro as President, there may be large policy changes in Brazil.
One of those will likely be to reform the ultra restrictive gun laws in Brazil. The current laws make it very difficult to own a gun. Even if you legally own a gun, you are restricted to a total of 50 cartridges per year.
Reforms would make guns much easier to own, carry, and use for self defense. Up to 100 rounds of ammunition per year, per gun, would be allowed.
Reforming the gun laws was a major part of Jair Bolsonaro's political platform.
If the extremely high murder rate started to fall as the access to legal firearms increased, reforms could have a positive feedback loop.
©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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1 comment:
I don't think anybody in Brazil ought to be celebrating Bolsonario's victory just yet. Sure, he said he wants to "Emulate the United States, to some extent, and recognize Brazilian's right to armed defense of self and property.", but his degree of emulation amounts to "Reforms [which] would make guns much easier to own, carry, and use for self defense. Up to 100 rounds of ammunition per year, per gun, would be allowed. (emphasis mine, OC)
I don't know about you folks but I blow through twice that when I go to the range for each gun I practicing with. While I understand that "Rome wasn't built in a day" I also know that a firearm with which you are not proficient can easily be more dangerous to you than to the intended target. Still and all, the crime rate statistics for Brazil vs the U.S. should be convincing to anyone whose mind is even the slightest, tiniest bit open.
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