Lines are for 2021,Bars are for 2022.
November of 2022 had the second highest number of National Instant background Check System checks for a November. Only November of 2020 had a higher number. The number of gun sales for November was the fourth highest on record, with about 1.49 million gun sales. Last year, 2021, edged out this year with 1.51 million sales, while 2020 had 1.92 million sales and 2016 had 1.62 million sales, as estimated using the FBI figures for gun sales from the NICS system.
In NICS, there are categories for long guns, handguns, other guns and multiple gun sales. The estimate of sales for the month is arrived at by adding the long gun, handgun, and other sales with 2.5 x the multiple sales figures. The estimate is consistent, and does not include NICS checks for permits or permit re-checks, which have come to dominate NICS in recent years. Of about 2.75 million checks total for November of 2022, Illinois permit checks and Kentucky permit rechecks total .717 million, over 25% of the total checks done! The permit checks and rechecks are not charged for by the federal government. The permit and permit rechecks are what are fueling the increases in overall NICS checks. Thus, the raw NICS numbers are not a reliable indicator of firearm sales.
The November sales figures bring the NICS gun sales to about 15.51 million so far in 2022. December is usually a good month for gun sales. This correspondent predicts 1.8 million firearms will be sold through the NICS system in December. It that happens, the total for 2022 will be 17.3 million firearms.
The war in Ukraine, international chaos, and domestic uncertainty fuel high firearm sales. Countering the trend for higher sales are a recession and inflationary costs of food and fuel.
Credible assertions of Twitter, Google, and Facebook placing their thumbs on the election scales in 2020 and 2022 fuel domestic uncertainty. Domestic chaos in the United States is a likely goal for our most dangerous, self proclaimed opponent, the Chinese Communist Party. Through TicToc and hundreds of thousands of influencers in the United States, they have considerable ability to sway domestic public opinion and control events.
Firearms prices may rise due to inflationary pressures. However, firearms are durable goods. The vast majority of modern firearms are very well made, and will last for several lifetimes given any reasonable care.
The potential life of a stainless steel firearm with a composite stock, may be in hundreds of years. .22 rimfire firearms suffer very little wear, and can fire tens or hundreds of thousands of rounds before needing replacement parts.
Thus, a firearm is an heirloom purchase, which tends to keep pace and value with increasing inflation.
Similarly, modern ammunition has a shelf life measured in decades, perhaps a hundred years and more, if stored in a cool, dry environment. Storage can be facilitated by keeping the cartridges in sealed containers. Military ammunition cans are made for the purpose, and are usually available for a reasonable price.
In difficult times, cartridges are a valuable trade commodity, which may be more valued than gold or silver.
If 1.8 million firearms are sold in December of 2022, the total private stock will be estimated at 489 million firearms in the United States, rounded off to the nearest million.
©2022 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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