While Sandy Hook Elementary gives the Obama administration emotional
fuel to promote a gun ban, government data show that civilian rifle
ownership and murders with rifles have little in common.
The following graphs resulted from collating data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Justice, and Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms.
Between 1991 and 2011, civilian rifle ownership increased from an
estimated 74 million to 112 million (51% growth). During that same
period, the number of rifle homicide victims declined 57% (see graph
below).
(Spearman’s rho equals -0.87, a strong negative correlation: more rifles, less homicide with rifles.)
Examining rates better compares growth in both gun ownership
and population. The following graph compares the rate of victims shot
with rifles (per 100,000 population) versus the rate of civilian rifle
ownership (per 1,000 population for a more usable number). The rifle
ownership rate increased 22% between 1991 and 2011, while the rifle
homicide rate decreased 65%.
(Spearman’s rho equals -0.89, a strong negative correlation: higher rifle ownership, lower rifle homicide rate.)
In terms of crime data, the effective years for the Clinton “assault weapons” ban
(banning scary-looking semi-automatic rifles) were 1995 through 2004.
(September 13, 1994, was the enactment date, including over two-thirds
of the FBI’s 1994 crime data; same for the sunset year, September 13,
2004.)
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
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