Saturday, November 13, 2021

NICS and Gun Sales for October, 2021 Continue Trend for Second Highest Year Ever

As has become the norm for 2021, October gun sales in 2021 were the second highest on record. Less commonly, the total NICS background checks were also the second highest October on record. There is a significant difference between the NICS checks and gun sales. Gun sales have been running at about half of NICS checks for a while, but in October, they were 54% NICS checks.  What seems to have happened is permit and permit rechecks have fallen off a bit.

In October, the number of gun sales, calculated as handguns + long guns + other guns + 2.5 x multiple sales on one 4473 are a bit more than 1.38 million guns out of 2.58 million background checks. In October of 2020, gun sales were 56% of total NICS.  

There have been about 15.2 million guns added to the private stock in 2021, so far. That translates to approximately 478 million privately owned firearms in the United States. 3.8 million more gun sales are required to reach 482 million privately owned guns by the end of 2021. 

The rate of gun sales in 2021 translates to another 3.45 million sales in November and December of 2021. November and December are traditionally the two highest months for gun sales. 

With supply chain disruptions becoming significant, it is unknown how gun sales will be affected.  Some gun parts are made in other countries, but most parts appear to be made in the United States.  

The ammunition bubble remains inflated, prices remain high. Even ammunition components are expensive and difficult to find. 

Limited ammunition supplies may be what is keeping gun sales from the record levels of 2021. 90% of 2020 sales is enough to make 2021 the second highest year for gun sales on the record. 

Many of the gun buyers are new gun owners. This transtates to a higher level of base ammunition demand. Eventually demand will fall either when confidence in a stable United States returns, or draconian controls drive demand into the black and grey markets.  Most Americans today have never known significant hardship or need. 

The idea that basic supplies can be in short supply is alien to most Americans alive today. . 

Shortages of certain brands, and the prospect of empty shelves on occasion looms ahead. Such things tend to remind one of vulnerablilities and kindle a desire for more independence. 

With that desire comes demand for firearms and ammunition.

This shows the demand for firearms can continue at high levels.

It is unknown how high bad the current shortages will become. 

This correspondent does not see a return to "normal" conditions until the grip on power in the American government by those who are pushing to remake American society is broken. 

 More than 8% of all American adults have a firearms carry permit. 21 states do not require a permit for open or concealed carry.  Over 32% of the adults in Alabama have a carry permit; Over 21 percent of adults in Indiana, and over 16% of adults in Iowa have carry permits. This indicates the 8.3% average for the nation has considerable room to grow. It could easily double or quadruple.

President Biden's proposed "build back better" initiative assumes American society is broken and requires fundamental change. "Build back better" implies the destruction of American society as we know it.

©2021 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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