When Will Constituional (Permitless) Carry be Available to a Majority of the Population?

 

In 2023, Constitutional Carry, (permitless) had been restored to 26 states. Vermont always had Constitutional Carry. Those states make up 65% of the land area of the United States of America. According to John Lott, those 27 states contain 44% of the population of the United States. When will a majority of the people in the United States enjoy permitless carry, as well as a majority of the states?

It is highly likely Louisiana will join the Constitutional Carry club in early 2024. Louisiana increases the percentage of the land area from 65.3% to over two thirds with 66.7% of the land area. Louisiana increases the percent of the population to 45.4 percent. The estimate for the population in 2023 is about 340 million people.  4.6% of 340 million is 15.6 million people. There are several states which are candidates for Constitutional Carry which could be combined to place the population of people in states where a permit is not required to over 50% of the population of the USA.

One of the most likely of those states is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania passed Constitutional Carry, with significant margins in its legislature, in 2021. Anti-Second Amendment Governor Tom Wolf vetoed Senate Bill 565.  A Republican governor in Pennsylvania and a Republican legislature would very likely pass a Constitutional Carry bill. Pennsylvania has a population of about 12.96 million people in 2023. Pennsylvania would put the United States very close to a majority of the population living in permitless carry states. There have been significant voting irregularities in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.  It is difficult to prosecute people for election fraud when one political party controls all the levers of power in a city or state.

The most likely candidate states for passing Constitutional Carry, besides Louisiana and Pennsylvania, are: North Carolina, population 10.9 million; South Carolina, population 5.35 million; Michigan, population 10.04 million; Wisconsin, Population 5.91 million, and Nevada, population 2.89 million.

Assuming Louisiana passes Constitutional Carry (permitless) in the next few months, Pennsylvania and any of the other states mentioned above would place a majority of the population of the USA in permitless carry jurisdictions. Similarly, North Carolina and any of South Carolina, Michigan, or Wisconsin would do the same. Michigan and Wisconsin would also work. Other than those combinations, three states would be required.

If the Constitution and a representative republic can be kept over the next decade or two, most of the states will either have Constitutional Carry or clear and objective shall issue permit systems.  An issue which will likely come before the courts is whether the states have the power to prevent people from other states to bear arms in the territory controlled by the state.

Massachusetts has already had a court case where the judge said they cannot prosecute someone from another state, if they can legally carry in their home state.

The United States of America may reach a point where a few highly restrictive states, such as New York and California, will restrict their own citizens more than they are able to restrict the citizens of relatively free states such as Montana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi and New Hampsire. New York and California are working hard to defy the Supreme Court and keep their laws as restrictive as they allowed by their voting populations and the federal courts.

©2023 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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