The trend line of 2024 as the fifth most gun sales and National Instant background Check System (NICS) is holding for the year. In November of 2024, the month had the sixth highest gun sales for November. It was close. November of 2022 had .28% higher numbers. The NICS background checks were the fifth most for the month. November 2020 holds the record for gun sales in the month, with about 3.6 million sold in November of 2020.
With about 1.48 million gun sales, as recorded by NICS and our estimation process, November of 2024 continues the trend of 64 consecutive months of more than 1 million firearms sales as commented on by the National Shooting Sports Federation (NSSF).
The estimate of gun sales through November of 2024 is a bit over 13 million. December is traditionally the highest month for gun sales, with memories of recent hunting seasons and Christmas contributing.
The highest number of gun sales during the history of NICS in December occurred in 2015, with nearly 2.2 million guns sold. With Donald Trump safely elected in November of 2016, December gun sales dropped to about 1.8 million. This correspondent expects a drop in gun sales in 2024, to a bit less than what was recorded in 2022, to about 1.6 million sales. This would be less than the 1.8 million in 2016, making the December 2024 sales the sixth highest during the life of NICS, form December of 1998. If such occurs gun sales for 2024 will be the sixth highest in the 27 Decembers recorded in NICS.
This correspondent's prediction is 2024 will have had 14.6 million guns recorded as sold by NICS. Not all of those guns are additions to the national private stock of firearms. Many of them are guns which have been owned previously. Using a combination of FBI NICS data and the commercial numbers which used to be reported by the ATF, about 13% of gun sales recorded by NICS are for guns which were already part of the private stock of American gun owners.
When President Trump won his first election in 2017, gun sales as recorded by NICS dropped for the next three years, with record sales during the campaign year of 2020. It seems likely the pattern will repeat itself. Patriots have purchased a lot of guns in anticipation of potential domestic and international problems since President Obama started the trend to fundamentally transform the United States in 2008. With potential stability looking possible in 2025, under a reinvigorated Trump second term, the fear of domestic and international instability is likely to recede. If President Trump is able to achieve his promises for peace in the Ukrainian-Russian war, and an extension of his tremendous achievements with the Abraham accords in the Middle East, pressure for more gun sales will drop. President Trump is one of the master negotiators of the age, so it can happen.
While gun sales to people on the left could rise, the numbers are likely to be smaller than the drop in gun sales to Trump supporters and independents. Very few on the far left are gun enthusiasts, although they exist.
©2024 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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