Ammunition and Trump Tariffs - A Good Time to Buy?

The Trump tariffs are unlikely to have much effect on ammunition prices in the United States of America.

President Trump has entered office at full throttle. He has been enacting significant parts of his trade policies much faster than most previous presidents. One of his stated goals is stopping unfair trade practices against the United States. Part of that effort has been widespread use of tariffs to bring other countries to the bargaining table.

Ammunition supplies inside the United States have been fairly stable for many months. Prices have been steady or dropping. The shortages associated with the Obama years were not duplicated during the Biden years, although future importation permits for Russian ammunition were blocked by Biden executive orders. There was a failed attempt to prevent Lake City ammunition from being sold to the public. In spite of these efforts, most ammunition was generally available at prices somewhat lower than previous spikes.

Most of the ammunition consumed inside the United States is manufactured inside the United States. There are exceptions. During the .22 rimfire shortage, Aquila Ammunition quadrupled their production capacity in Mexico. About half of that capacity is exported to the United States. There are several other manufacturers who export .22 rimfire to the the United States, such as Armscorp from the Philippines, Ely from the UK, and Fiocci from Italy. Altogether, rimfire imports are estimated at about 10% of the consumption in the USA.

Imported centerfire cartridges and shotgun shells have found niches in the United States market. At present, many of the imports offer price advantages compared to American made products. Some European producers, such as Fiocci, Sellier & Bellot, Prvi Partizan and others offer cartridges which are not produced by American manufacturers, such as .30 Luger, 7x57 rimmed, and 9.3x72mm rounds. General tariffs on European manufactured goods could have an effect on those prices... someday.

Most countries in the world have signed up for trade talks with the United States. There is a current 90 day pause in implementing the Trump tariffs, with the major exception of China. There has been a ban on the importation of Chinese Ammunition since 1994. As AmmoLand contributor John Farnam noted, China exports a considerable amount of nitrocellulose. The United States has only two major manufacturers of Nitrocellulose this correspondent is aware of. This is a critical vulnerability. At present, the nitrocellulose made in the USA is just enough for our needs. At times, the supply of gun powder has not met demand. The production of primers is just starting to meed demand at present.  Some prices for primers have been reduced.

Analysis:

If readers desire specialty ammunition, or have found a particular import to work especially well, this might be a good time to stock up. When inflation is taken into account, .22 rimfire ammunition is about as low as it has ever been. The American ammunition market is likely near saturation. There are always specials, sales, and discounted or discontinued product. The next two months, at least, promise to offer a continuation of the prices currently available on imported products.

The tariffs deals may not be the same everywhere. Mexico may get a different deal than the Philippines. Italy may obtain better terms than the Czech Republic. If you need specialty cartridges made overseas, this is probably a good time to buy.

This correspondent would love to see a nitrocellulose plant built in Montana to meet demand. Such plants are expensive and take time to construct. There are significant safety and environmental concerns. If one of the current nitrocellulose plants were shut down, there would be significant gunpowder shortages in the United States of America. Another nitro-cellulose plant in the United States seems a worth while endeavor to subsidize, as it aids in the defense of the United States.

Antimony is not as critical as the nitrocellulose plants. Only small amounts of anitimony are necessary for lead alloys used in bullets. Antimony is a small amount of the cost of ammunition, according to Dan Wolgin, CEO of Ammunition Depot. If the cost of antimony doubled (highly unlikely), it would barely be noticed.

This is a good time to purchase ammunition, especially .22 rimfire, in the United States of America. If you have not stocked up, consider doing so now.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch