May 2025 Firearm Sales Recorded by NICS Near Level

 

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for May of 2025. The adjusted numbers show very little change from May of 2024, only 1.6% lower than May of last year. The number of firearm sales is over a million, as calculated by NSSF. While down from May of 2024, May of 2025 is still the sixth highest number of firearms sales recorded in the NICS system over the last 26 years. According to the FBI numbers, total NICS background checks in May of 2025 were 2.2% lower than  than in May of 2024, so both sales and background checks have moved slightly lower.

For several years, this correspondent has been calculating and estimated number for firearms sales using the raw numbers provided by the FBI. The estimate was handgun checks + long gun checks + other (firearm) checks + 2.5 x multiple checks. The difference between this formula and that used by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) has been found to be negligible.  Both are estimates, and are within a couple of percent. In the future, the NSSF figures will be used. This correspondent is a long time media member of NSSF.

The rate of decline in firearm sales in May of 2025 was only 1.6%. It is a very small number. As the year progresses, the number of sales recorded by NICS compared to the number of actual firearm sales may go down for structural reasons. The ATF maintains a list of permits which may be used as a substitute for the Brady Law check (NICS check). Two states have been added to the 27 previous states and Puerto Rico which have at least one permit which qualifies. Alabama and Michigan have been added to the list, after a review by the Trump administration. Both have permits which qualify as substitutes for the NICS check required by the Brady Law.  Alabama has about 816 thousand permit holders. Michigan has about 843 thousand permit holders. Together that makes about 1.66 million gun owners who do not need to obtain a separate NICS check when the purchase a firearm from a federal dealer.

There are about 250 million adults in the USA as of 2025. About 20 million have felony convictions.  Therefore, roughly 230 million are eligible to purchase firearms from a federal dealer. If 1.66 million of those no longer need to go through a NICS check to satisfy the Brady Law, we should expect the number of Firearms sales checks to decrease by about .72 percent. It is a small number, but nearly half of the small sales drop estimated in May of 2025.

Politically motivated riots in California may spur some people on the edge to purchase firearms in June. If the riots grow, expect firearms sales to rise. If the riots fizzle out, this correspondent expects firearm sales to remain about the same as last year.

According to NICS adjusted data assembled by the NSSF, the last 12 months show an overall slight decline.

All months are still showing over a million firearm sales per month. May of 2025, according to NSSF calculations, is the 70th consecutive month of firearm sales over 1 million. The estimated total of modern firearms in private hands in the United States, is 533 million as of the end of May, 2025.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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