The May, 2026 National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers are in. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusted background check numbers show expanding firearm sales as the number of total background checks done through NICS continues to drop. In May, the drop was almost 11 percent from May of 2025. From NSSF:
The May 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,105,758 is an increase of 3.2 percent compared to the May 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,071,685. For comparison, the unadjusted May 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,780,230 reflects a 10.9 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 1,998,440 in May 2025.
The 2026 adjusted background check numbers are designed to be highly correlated to actual sales numbers. They are not the same because the NICS checks are used for multiple purposes. The adjusted numbers take out the checks done specifically for firearms permits and permit renewals. They do not adjust for multiple firearms sold with one NICS check, or for firearms sold without a separate NICS check such as those in states where possession of a permit is allowed to be substituted for a NICS check. Most private sales do not involve a NICS check.
The NSSF Report over the last 12 months shows consistent increases in the adjusted NICS checks in 2026 since January. This is four months of increases in the adjusted NICS checks over the same four months in 2025. The NSSF has started to track NICS checks done for Form 1 and Form 4 applications to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) by month. There are very large increasin in these numbers since the $200 tax has been remove by the Trump administration. In April, the numbers were up 130%. In May of 2026, the numbers were up over 100%. From the NSSF:
• The May 2026 NFA figure of 146,551 is an increase of 100.4 percent compared to the May 2025 figure of 73,138.
The increase in numbers shows how much the exercise of Second Amendment rights has been infringed in previous years. Although the tax has been removed, there are still numerous infringements. People who wish to comply with the National Firearms Act (NFA) are required to submit fingerprints, photographs, and to wait for approval by the ATF before making or purchasing a piece of safety equipment such as a suppressor / silencer / gun muffler. They are required to go through the same procedure for short barreled rifles or short barreled shotguns. Several lawsuits are in progress challenging the constitutional validity of the continued bureaucratic infringements. Some states are moving to protect silencer/ suppressor owners.
Analysis: Firearms sales thrive during times of uncertainty. The constant attacks on President Trump in the old media probably aid in keeping firearm sales high. The conflicts being waged overseas in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are likely contributors. Removing the $200 tax on NFA has helped. If current lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the continued infringements in the NFA succeed, there will be a boom in the sales of suppressors / silencers / gun mufflers and in the sale of short barreled shotguns and short barreled rifles. The Second Amendment is a very popular part of the Bill of Rights. The economy is doing pretty well. If peace is reached in the Middle East, prosperity is likely.
©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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