The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), created by John Lott, has published research on the ratio of active shooting attacks by people who are mentally confused about their gender identity, commonly referred to as "transgender". In 2024, according to the CRPC research, "trans" were 12 times as likely to commit an active shooting attack compared to the population as a whole.
In 2024, Politifact published an article claiming that mass shooting by "trans" people is a small number of all mass shootings. As the CPRC research points out, this does not tell us if people who identify as "trans" are more or less likely to engage in mass murder or attempted mass murder than the population at large. As is common in discussions of violence and statistics, the way you define the variables makes all the difference in how the numbers shake out. Considering broad definitions of "terrorism" or "gun violence" will give a significantly different result than considering more precise definitions of active shooting attacks or mass killing. Another important variable is what time frame is considered.
The variables most important to determine if "trans" people are over-represented in active shooting attacks are the total number of active shooting attacks, the number committed by "trans" people, and the percentage of "trans" people in the population as a whole. The numbers can be refined by looking at particular population sub-groups if there is enough data. All of these numbers can be manipulated by changes in definition. When conducting statistical research, it is extremely important to use precise definitions.
The research published by the CRPC does a good job of carefully defining the numbers it uses, and the definitions which are used. The CRPC study examines both active shooting and mass killing with the traditional FBI definitions. It uses estimates of the percentage of "trans" people in the population from the Center for Disease Control, a Gallup survey in 2021, and the Census. The numbers vary from .5% to 1% in the period studied. The numbers appear to be rising. The study only looks at the period from 2018 through 2024. The study does not speculate about the causes of the increase in the percentage of people who identify as "trans".
The CRPC study also looks at the age distribution of "trans", finding that most "trans" active shooters are concentrated in age groups younger than 30 years old. The CRPC study cites research showing "trans" people have much higher levels of suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts, about 10-20 times higher than the rest of the population. That is not 10-20%. It is about 10 times the percentage of people considering suicide than the general population. It is about 20 times the percentage of attempted suicides compared to the percentage attempting suicide in the general population.
The research by the CRPC is a welcome counterpoint to articles which work hard to show people who identify as "trans" as less violent than non-trans people. The CRPC research does not examine the motives of "trans" people involved in active shooting incidents.
Analysis: It is not surprising that a population which takes significant amounts of powerful drugs, who are not happy with their bodies, who attempt suicide at 20 times the percentage of the population as a whole, could commit crimes against society at much higher levels than the general population.
©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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