CO: Armed Victim Stops Carjacking in Arvada

“It was surreal. When he pulled that gun, I went into tunnel vision. I looked at him and said, ‘It ain’t happening,'” Heagerty said.

Heagerty didn’t hand over the keys. Instead, he tossed them several feet away. The suspected car thief took off after them. The distraction gave Heagerty enough time to draw his own concealed weapon.

“I took a giant sidestep, drew my firearm, pointed it right at him and said, ‘Not happening. Not today.’ The look on his face was sheer shock when he looked up and he was looking down the barrel of my pistol,” Heagerty said.

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California AG Becerra Asks Ninth Circuit for En Banc Review of Magazine Decision

   

 

On 28 August, 2020, Attorney General Becerra of Callifornia petitioned the Ninth Circuit to review the case of Duncan v. Becerra. The review would be of the three judge panel which held the California ban on magazines which hold over 10 rounds of ammunition to be unconstitutional. From the Petition for En Banc: 

https://michellawyers.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-08-28-Petition-for-Rehearing-En-Banc.pdf

1 INTRODUCTION AND RULE 35 STATEMENT

California respectfully petitions for rehearing en banc of the panel’s decision, which invalidates a state law restricting large-capacity magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition (LCMs). California voters adopted the current LCM law in response to a spate of mass shootings in this State and across the Nation, and in light of evidence establishing the severe toll inflicted by mass shootings involving LCMs. A divided panel of this Court, however, held that this law is among the policy choices that the Second Amendment takes “off the table.” District of Columbia v. Heller, 554 U.S. 570, 636 (2008).

 

Judge Roger T. Benitez issued his opinion on 29 March, 2019. It is a beautifully written opinion, based on the philosophy that the Constitution means something, and should only be altered by amendment.  Judge Benitez found the magazine ban to be unconstitutional.

The three judge panel issued their opinion on 14 August, 2020. The majority opinion is based on the same philosophy, upholding Judge Benitez' opinion. One judge dissented, based on the philosophy the Constitution should be interpreted to mean whatever judges deem appropriate for the times. 

The petition for review of the case by an en banc panel of the Ninth Circuit does not mean the review will automatically be granted. The Ninth Circuit could vote not to review the case en banc.

Whether the Ninth decides to hear the case en banc or not, the process takes time.  In a previous Second Amendment case, Peruta, the process for an en banc review took 18 months from the time Kamala Harris, then the California AG, petitioned for an en banc review.  Here is a timeline of significant events for the Peruta case from AG Kamala Harris' petition for en banc review:

Kamala Harris calls for en banc review on 26 November, 2014. 

https://us2.campaign-archive.com/?u=1ef541dad0e09e0f2235125c0&id=7d9e693670&e=b5ca985bb4

A Judge on the Ninth Circuit  asks for vote on en banc on Peruta, 3 December, 2014.

http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/general/2014/12/03/10-5697112-03-2014B.pdf

The Ninth Circut votes to review Peruta en banc on 26 March, 2015.

http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/general/2015/03/26/10-56971%20EB%20Order.pdf

Peruta argued on 16 June, 2015.

The en banc opinion is filed on 9 June, 2016.

 http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/general/2016/06/09/10-56971%206-9%20EB%20opinion%20plus%20webcites.pdf

The process with Peruta took a bit over 18 months. In the Peruta case, it was another year before the Supreme Court refused to hear the case. 

It is impossible to predict the timing of appeals cases. If we use Peruta as a yardstick, it could be two and a half years before the Supreme Court even decides whether to hear the case or not. A great deal can happen in two and a half years.

If President Trump is re-elected, he may have the opportunity to appoint another Supreme Court justice during that period. 

If President Trump is not re-elected, either former Vice President Joe Biden may have such an opportunity, or plausibly, Senator Kamala Harris may have become president and appoint a justice to the Supreme Court. 

It is possible, but unlikely, the Ninth Circuit and the Supreme Court would expedite matters and push the case through in nine months. 

I expect the stay on the ruling by Judge Benitez to continue through the process, until either the Supreme Court issues an opinion, or refuses to hear the case.

Do not expect quick action. 

If the Ninth votes not to review the case en banc, everything will be sped up by as much as 18 months. 

It is reasonable to expect the results of the en banc vote before the end of the year. 

©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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IN: Pizzaman Survives Gunfight, is Assassinated by 17-Year-Old Female

Gibson heard four shots outside of his house at the corner of 16th and Hart streets about 11:15 p.m. Monday. When he went outside, he said he saw a man lying dead on the sidewalk near a fence, and a pizza delivery man telling him they tried to rob him, Gibson said.

Tippecanoe County Chief Deputy Coroner Carrie Costello identified Vanmeter and Ungersma, 37, late Tuesday morning.

(snip)

While Gibson's roommate called police, he said he watched as a 17-year-old girl walked across the street and shot Ungersma at point-blank range, killing him in the street.

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19-Year-Old Learns Gunfight Lesson from 74-Year-Old, the Hard Way

Image from Google Maps, scaled, cropped, text and lines by Dean Weingarten


On Thursday morning, 30 July, 2020, in Graves County Kentucky, at a rural residence in the early morning hours, well before sunrise, a young man attempted to force his way into the house. The armed invader was 19. The homeowner was 74. Here are the details from the Sheriff's Office. From Graves County Sheriff's Office, Kentucky:

A Graves County man was shot early this morning after reportedly kicking in a door on a residence and gaining entry.

The events began at approximately 3AM, when the homeowner of a residence called 911 to report that a man wearing a mask forced his way into his home while armed with a shotgun. The home is located on Ky Hwy 1710 just south of Ky Hwy 58 East. The homeowner met the suspect and the suspect reportedly fled from the area, after getting into a small sized vehicle.

Deputies responded to the area and were able to obtain some evidence left behind by the suspect.

Then again at approximately 4:45AM, the 74 year old resident and homeowner called 911 again reporting that a man had kicked in his door again, armed with a shotgun. The caller advised that he had shot the intruder with a shotgun after he entered his home and that the intruder had fled on foot.

Minutes later as law enforcement was arriving in the area, Mayfield Police (whom had responded to assist) had located 19 year old James Page II just down the road from the residence with a severe shotgun wound to his arm in or near the roadway. Sheriff’s deputies also recovered a shotgun that had been in the suspects possession.

Mayfield-Graves County EMS treated and transported James Page II whom was later airlifted to an out of state hospital. His condition is not believed to be life threatening.

The investigation has led investigators to obtaining arrest warrants for James Page II for 1st Degree Burglary and other related charges.

The homeowner is not facing any criminal charges.

The investigation is continuing.

Thank you,

Sheriff Jon Hayden

Forcing your way into a home in rural Kentucky  in the early morning hours (before sunrise) shows a distinct lack of foresight. There may be other factors in play, but it appears the suspect, 19-Year-Old James Page III, was after some sort of illicit gain. He was charged with First Degree Burglary, among other things.

As stated in the message by Sheriff Hayden, this was not the first time the suspect had forced his way into the property. The first time was less than two hours earlier, at about 3:00 a.m. The suspect was reportedly armed with a shotgun, both times. The first time, the suspect was wearing a mask, and had fled the home in a small vehicle.

From the comments at the Sheriff's office facebook page, it appears James Page was starting a significant criminal career. From the comments: 

His assault case on me was just finished in february and he got off on 3 years parole. Didnt even make it a year like I told the courts he wouldn't

A shotgun blast to the arm is no small matter, even if it is "not life threatening". James Page III may face the future one handed, but he is alive.

From the comments at the sheriff's site, it appears the homeowner is known in the area as a good shot. One person said the homeowner "never missed a squirrel". 

It is not uncommon for criminals to repeat crimes at the same location. Armed robbers commonly rob the same store. Burglars often hit the same home multiple times.

It is a bit unusual for a home invader to come back so quickly. Perhaps he was nearby, and waited for the deputies to leave.

It was a serious error.

It is to be hoped the injury will persuade young James Page III that invading homes, and crime in general, are poor career choices.


©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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PA: Gunfight in Wilkinsburg Home, 1 of 2 Intruders Shot, Killed

While Wilkinsburg Police were searching the area, they found the body of a 29-year old man along the intersection of Superior Street and Penn Avenue. That man was found wearing a ski mask.

Allegheny County Police say through their investigation, they found the two armed men who live in the home did not return fire. As of Tuesday morning, investigators say it appears the man was struck by gunfire from his accomplice.

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Black Bear Kills Unarmed Woman in Unprovoked Attack; Bear Spray Fails, Gun Works

 

On 21 August, 2020 at McKie Lake, Saskatchewan, Canada, a 44 year old mother of two was attacked and killed by a large black bear as she talked on a satellite phone with her father. 

The father said he was talking to her when he heard a gurgling noise, and was no longer able to communicate with here. Nine minutes later, his son-in-law, Stephanie's husband, Curtis Blais, called him and told him of the attack. Curtis had tried bear spray, but it did not work, so he got a gun and shot and killed the bear. From cbc.ca:

After waiting two minutes, Esquirol disconnected and called back. No one answered. Seven minutes later, he got a call from his daughter's husband, Curtis Blais, who had been in the cabin's kitchen about 30 metres away.

"Curtis called advising me that a bear attacked her, that he sprayed the bear with pepper spray, and the bear got more angry."

Esquirol said his son-in-law told him he got a gun and shot the bear twice before it went down.  

"So by that time, Stephanie had no pulse. He gave her mouth to mouth, but she was injured beyond the point of recovery."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/edam-sask-woman-killed-by-black-bear-while-on-the-phone-with-her-father-1.5697706

Given Canadian gun control laws, one has to wonder how long it took him to retrieve the firearm and load it. Under Canadian law, every gun must be locked up and unloaded, unless actually in use. The ammunition must be locked up in a separate container. There are exceptions for use during predator control and storage of  a non-restricted firearm in a remote wilderness area. Even with those exceptions, the firearm must be kept unloaded.

Storage of Non-Restricted Firearms

• 5 (1) An individual may store a non-restricted firearm only if

  • (a) it is unloaded;

  • (b) it is

    • (i) rendered inoperable by means of a secure locking device,

    • 
      

• • • (ii) rendered inoperable by the removal of the bolt or bolt-carrier, or

    • (iii) stored in a container, receptacle or room that is kept securely locked and that is constructed so that it cannot readily be broken open or into; and

  • (c) it is not readily accessible to ammunition, unless the ammunition is stored, together with or separately from the firearm, in a container or receptacle that is kept securely locked and that is constructed so that it cannot readily be broken open or into.

• (2) Paragraph (1)(b) does not apply to any individual who stores a non-restricted firearm temporarily if the individual reasonably requires it for the control of predators or other animals in a place where it may be discharged in accordance with all applicable Acts of Parliament and of the legislature of a province, regulations made under such Acts, and municipal by-laws.

• (3) Paragraphs (1)(b) and (c) do not apply to an individual who stores a non-restricted firearm in a location that is in a remote wilderness area that is not subject to any visible or otherwise reasonably ascertainable use incompatible with hunting.

 https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/sor-98-209/FullText.html

The bear was reported to be between 250 and 300 pounds. 

The bear was not starving. Its stomach was full of blueberries. From foxnews.com:

He said a conservation officer told him the bear was unprovoked in the attack and that the bear wasn’t hungry. It had a stomach full of blueberries.

Given that Stephanie was attacked without warning, it is impossible to know if she could have been saved if the firearm had been available and used first instead of the bear spray. 

We do not know how much time was consumed with complying with the Canadian government laws on firearms and ammunition storage. 

We do not know how much time was wasted attempting to use the bear spray. 

We know, with severe trauma, the first few minutes and seconds are extremely important. Any delay of the delivery of first aid can be fatal.

©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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CA: Homeowner in Bakersfield Shoots Intruder about 6 p.m.

BPD said officers responded to reports of a burglary in-process at the 2300 block of Mirto Court Sunday around 6 p.m. When they arrived, the homeowner reported someone attempting to force entry into the residence. The homeowner reported he armed himself with a handgun and fired at the suspect.

The suspect sustained multiple gunshots and was admitted to the hospital with moderate, but non-life-threatening injuries. BPD said the suspect is in stable condition.

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FL: Man at Tallahassee Protest was Justified on Pulling Gun on Protestors who Attacked Him

"The evidence confirmed the physical altercation between numerous protesters and that the individual was knocked to the ground and under attack before lawfully defending himself," the release said. "TPD confirmed that the individual with the gun was lawfully carrying a concealed weapon as a license holder."

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IA: Homeowner in Palo, Iowa, Shoots and Kills Intruder at 3 a.m.

Deputies were in the area when they received another call from a home in the 2700 block of Ridgeview Drive. Officials said the man had broken into the home and threatened the occupants, but the homeowner shot him.

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Spectacular images of Horseback Archery Competetion in Poland!

Horse-riding archery queen Anna Sokólska delighted judges with her expertise in horseback archery. With kind permission of AMM Archery

Horse-riding archery queen Anna Sokólska has won the first official Polish Championships at the 9th International Horse Archery Competition held in Grunwald.

The 33-year-old finished the three day event on her horse called Czanar with a whopping 294.27 points, despite a poor start, with runner up Wojtek Osiecki scoring 280.62.

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Video/Analysis of Defensive Shootings by Rifleman in Kenosha RIots

The video shows a timeline of the shootings during the Kenosha riots on 25 August, 2020.  In the video there are two shooting sequences. Both appear to be cases of self defense. 

Link to video

The video identifies the rifleman as Kyle Rittenhouse.  I will refer to the man who is running with the rifle as the rifleman, as the identification has not be verified at this time.

The first shooting happens as the rifleman is running away from pursuers, in the lot of an auto dealer.  You can see him running and people pursuing. One is getting close enough to throw something at him. About five seconds later, you hear shots being fired. Another few seconds, you hear "he shot him". 

The man who shot was running for his life, retreating, when he apparently turns and shoots his closest pursuer.  It looks to be self defense. 

In the law of self defense, there is a long standing concept of disparity of force. Facing multiple attackers who can knock you down and stomp you to death has long been recognized as a disparity of force situation, where use of a weapon is necessary to preserve your life and/or bodily integrity. 

The recent video out of Portland, where the victim did not have a weapon, and did not resist, but was nearly killed by his pursuers, shows how dangerous mob pursuit is. You have a legal right to defend yourself with deadly force against this sort of deadly attack.

After the shots, where the pursuer goes down, the rifleman circles through the cars and comes back to the attacker he just shot.

He gets out his phone to call. According to the video, he is calling 911. 

More pursuers comes up, threatening the rifleman, so he takes off with more mob members chasing him again. 

A few seconds later, he trips in the street. One of the mob yells "get his ass!" At least five people can be seen pursuing him. Some of the mob is deterred because of his rifle. 

One mob member runs up to jump and stomp him. The rifleman appears to block him with the rifle butt. The attacker goes down, then hobbles off. At the same time a man with a skateboard is running up and strikes at the rifleman on the ground. The rifleman shoots him, probably in the body.  

 

A third man is running up at the rifleman, but hesitates, at the shot, and stops.

The rifleman points the rifle at him, but does not shoot. This appears to be the man who has a pistol. He attacks the rifleman again, and is appears to be shot in the arm. The attacker who had the skateboard is down in the street. 

 

Clearest video of defensive shooting from nypost.com

The videos illustrate how effective a man with a rifle can be in defending himself against mob attack, even with the extreme restraint shown in this example. 

First, he does not shoot, but attempts to run away. He does not shoot into the crowd, or shoot indiscriminately.  He shoots the one attacker who is the closest threat. 

Then he calls 911, according to the narration. 

Then he is threatened again. He runs/retreats again. He falls and is threatened, but does not shoot the pursuers who stop and back off. He is then assaulted by multiple men with weapons (skateboards/pistol). 

 Courtesy INSTAGRAM / @LOURIEALEX

He defends himself again, only shooting two of the three who close with him. The other pursuers have had enough, and he is able to walk away, with gunshots in the background.  He turns to walk backward, to guard against further pursuit. 

It is classic self defense. 

Finally,  a short while later, in another video, he reaches safety and is shown surrendering to police. 

 

All of the people shot could easily have avoided being shot, simply by not pursuing the retreating rifleman. 

With the shots in the background, it is impossible to know how many shots the rifleman who was being pursued, fired.  

This classic example shows how useful a semi-automatic rifle is in self defense against a mob. 

We cannot know everything from the video shown. More details will probably surface. The Antifa/BLM supporters have  already been on twitter claiming the rifleman was a white supremicist. 

On twitter, many were saying the attack in the street was justified, because he had "just shot someone in the head". The twitter users never mention he shot someone in the head while fleeing the mob for his life. 

The responses seem to be pre-programed into the agitators. Whenever someone defends themselves, the agitators call them white supremacists, and claim they were the aggressors. 

Digital recording devices are repeatedly revealing the lies.

 Update: Kyle Rittenhouse, 17 has been charged with first degree intentional homicide. He is a resident of Antioch, Illinois, 12 miles from the shooting scene.

It appears the police ignored him as he attempted to surrender to them in the video, after reaching the safety of their location. 

©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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KY: Homeowner Shoots, Kills Intruder after Midnight

The caller reported a burglar entered through a front window when the caller shot the perpetrator.

Officers, along with the Boyd County Coroner pronounced the perpetrator dead at the scene after officers multiple attempts to save the alleged burglar.

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TX: Victim may Have Shot Burglary Suspect to Recover Property

Police said they believe at least one of the owners tracked down the alleged burglar and confronted him. An argument began over what was believed to be stolen property — which officials described as iPads and other electronics — and escalated to gunfire, police said. Amid the shooting investigation, blood could be seen on the sidewalk.

The owners were briefly detained for questioning, police said, but charges against the shooter are pending the results of a Harris County grand jury.

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FL: Homeowner Shoots, Kills, man who Broke in, Acted Violently

A homeowner fatally shot a home intruder after the suspect’s “bizarre” crime spree Friday morning in Lakeland, Polk County Grady Judd said.

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Followup PA: Gunfight in Parking lot, Shooting of Juan Rivera was Justified

“The registered owner of the vehicle was in the rear passenger compartment doing work on the vehicle’s stereo system. Rivera and his accomplice pointed their guns at the vehicle owner and demanded his property. Rivera then got out of the vehicle and went into the vehicle owner’s apartment where Rivera pointed a gun at the occupants.

“Simultaneously, Rivera’s accomplice struck the owner in the head and pulled him out of the vehicle. A struggle ensued between the owner and the accomplice. During the struggle, the accomplice dropped his gun and the weapon was picked up by the vehicle owner. The accomplice fled the area on foot.

“Rivera exited the vehicle owner’s apartment and confronted the owner. Both the owner and Rivera began to run around the parking lot and behind other parked vehicles and both discharged their firearms. Rivera was struck but fled the scene. The vehicle owner was not struck by a bullet.”

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CO: Pitbull Attacks Couple walking dogs; Taser Fails, Handgun works to Stop Attack

Neighbors said the Pitbull attacked two people walking by the home with their two dogs. They tried to get the dog to stop attacking- even tried tazing the dog- but nothing was working. They ultimately had to shoot the dog.

The Pitbull died on the scene- but owner Chris says he does not blame the neighbor for his actions and he would have done the same thing.

It still isn’t clear if the owner of the animal or if the neighbor who shot the dog will face any charges.

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No, I Absolutely DO NOT STIPULATE That Kyle Rittenhouse Shouldn’t Have Been In Kenosha by Herscel Smith

Herschel Smith wrote the article that is excerpted here.  I agree with him. The article deserves to be widely distributed. 

It has become all the rage.  That is, to partially defend Kyle’s actions as probable self defense, but then to raise the following stipulations.  First up, Leon Wolf writing at The Blaze.

Kyle Rittenhouse should not have been patrolling the streets of Kenosha, Wisconsin, Tuesday night. Whatever failures might have existed on the part of state and local government (and there appear to have been many), the idea of a 17-year-old with a loaded rifle being dropped into that powder keg can only happen when some horribly bad judgment has occurred.

We’ll get to that in a minute.  Next up, Steven Hayward writing at Powerline.

Let’s stipulate starting out that Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old from Antioch, Illinois, who has been arrested and charged with murder for shooting two people during the Kenosha riots two nights ago, should not have been present at the scene with a semi-auto rifle. That’s no place for a 17-year-old, even if he is a regular at the gun range. And resorting to vigilantism is a sure path to a breakdown in the rule of law and perhaps even open civil war.

Steven is massively naive.  He raises two points – his age, and the resort to “vigilantism.”  Let’s hold in abatement the issue of age for a moment.  As for vigilantism, surely he isn’t thinking clearly or perhaps hasn’t admitted the truth to himself.

We’ve discussed this many times before, but the police are committed to their salary and benefits.  They are under absolutely no legal obligation to defend life or property, or provide protection or safety for anyone.  We know this from Castle Rock v. Gonzales and Warren v. D.C.  They could wait until a murder has been fully and completely committed, while watching and eating doughnuts, and as long as they effect the arrest after the fact, most of them will have fully followed their department protocol.

The police are under the full control of the politicians, and the politicians are mostly Marxists.  Thus, holding the police back redounds to the destruction of property, unsafe environment for residents, and even the loss of family wealth when entire businesses have been burned to the ground.  Many families are not in a position to take a loss like that, regardless of the money Steven makes.

 

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WI: Armed Militia protect Property in Kenosha

A small militia of heavily armed civilians protected a gas station from being torched in Kenosha, Wisconsin, following the police shooting of Jacob Blake — imploring rioters not to “f–k up” their own neighborhood. 

“I’m on your side!” shouted one of three men carrying high-powered rifles and wearing helmets and protective clothing, with one in full military camouflage, according to video shot by Daily Caller reporter Shelby Talcott.

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More Medical Propaganda disquised as a "study" about Firearms and Risk

Meme from stgolinsky.com, cropped and scaled by Dean Weingarten

The American Journal of Medicine recently published a paper about deaths associated with firearms. The paper misleads in the first sentence of the abstract. The lie is in the unstated, false assumption. It is a subtle but important shift in causation.

The first sentence in the abstract is: 

News media and policy makers frequently discuss deaths from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents.

The shift in causation is done when the author inserts the word from before firearms and associates firearms with drug overdoses and motor vehicle accidents. The correct word would be with.

The correct usage would differ for each statistic. A corrected sentence would read thus: 

News media and policy makers frequently discuss deaths committed with firearms, from drug overdoses, and from motor vehicle accidents. 

Firearms are objects. Drug overdoses and motor vehicle accidents are actions. The author repeats the error by listing firearms as a "cause of death".

The Center for Disease Control  (CDC) does not list "Firearms" as a cause of death. They list homicide, suicide, and unintentional Injury. 

Inserting the word "from" defines firearms as the cause. It comes with the assumption: if there were no firearms, none of the deaths listed would have occurred. 

That is a false assumption. 

The rate of total suicides is little affected by a reduction of firearms; similarly, a reduction of firearms has little, if any, effect on homicides.

There may be an effect on fatal accidents. The numbers are so small, it is difficult to know if reducing the number of firearms would reduce the total rate of accidental deaths. It might, or it might not. 

The rate of accidental deaths with firearms has been reduced a remarkable 94% in the last 85 years, which is why the current number is so small. We do not have a good number for how many privately owned firearms there were 85 years ago. The first reasonable estimate is from 1945. 91 of the 94% reduction in the rate of fatal firearm accidents has occurred since 1945.  

The reduction has occurred while the per capita number of firearms has risen from .35 in 1945 to 1.37 in 2019. In 75 years, the number of firearms per person in the United States has increased 390%.  There is little correlation with the number of guns and the number of fatal gun accidents.

By the end of 2020, there will be four times as many privately owned guns per person in the United States as there was in 1945. The homicide rate is lower today than it was in 1945. 

In 1945 the homicide rate was 5.7 per 100,000. In 1933 it was 9.7. In 1957, it was 4.0. In  1974, it was  9.8. In  1980, it was 10.2. In 1984, it was 7.9. In 1993, it was 9.8. By 2013, it was back down to 4.5. 

The homicide rate has gone through wild swings, as the per capita number of firearms has steadily increased. 

There is no correlation between the number of guns and the homicide rate.

An absolutist might claim if there were no guns, there would be no gun accidents. No rational person believes the number of firearms in society can be reduced to zero. Even with the draconian gun controls put in place in Australia in 1997, the number of private guns is now more than it was before the controls were put in place. To reduce guns to zero, you have to eliminate the potential of making them. Making guns at home is getting easier every year.

There were 444 million private firearms in the United States at the end of 2019. The population was 328.2 million. 

In the results section of the abstract, the error is repeated. This is not a surprise. The error is the heart of the paper. Without the error, the reason for the article evaporates. From the results: 

The lifetime risk of death from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents was 0.93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92%-0.94%), 1.52% (95% CI, 1.51%-1.53%), and 0.92% (95% CI, 0.91%-0.93%), respectively.

To check the numbers in the paper, I performed much simpler mathematics. 

I took the number of deaths associated with firearms from the CDC in 2018 (39,740) x the life expectancy from the closest year, 2017 (78.54). That yielded the deaths over the time span of the average life expectancy, or 3,119,590. As a percentage of the population, that is .95%, very close to what the study says. But the study only counted people below the age of 85. When you correct for that (in 2016, the percent over 85 was 1.9%), 1.019 x .93 is .95%, so close as to be no difference. 

This simple check shows the mathematics of the study are credible. 

It is the conclusions of the study which are suspect. From the abstract: 

CONCLUSIONS:The lifetime risk of death from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents is substantial and varies greatly across demographic subgroups and states

The false assumption about causality is in the conclusion, as expected. There are two component messages which are implied. 

One, the reduction of firearms in society reduces the risk of death. That is false. 

Two, the idea that promoting the narrative that firearms cause death is desirable, for reasons of policy.

The two assumptions make the paper into a political statement, instead of a scientific one. 

These assumptions only make sense if the author assumes firearms have no positive uses or contributions to society.  A hundred million Americans show they believe firearms have positive uses. They do so by owing firearms instead of selling them, giving them away, or destroying them.

In 2020, millions of Americans are buying firearms. It appears a new record will be set, with over 21 million firearms sold in 2020. 

It is the heart of Progressive doctrine that the elite know better than the population, what is best for members of the public.  Restricting guns from those who value them, is a core progressive belief.

©2020 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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The false assumptions which are not stated.

False assumption: No firearms, no deaths.

False causality: Firearms cause these deaths. 

False, assumed prescription: Reduce firearms, reduce deaths.

Poor methodology: Only look at risks, ignore benefits.

Percent of population 85 or older: 1.8% in 2010, 1.9% in 2016

 If corrected, the number for lifetime risk becomes 95%  (.93 x 1.019)

 

From amjmed.com:

ABSTRACTBACKGROUND:News media and policy makers frequently discuss deaths from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents. However, this information is generally presented as absolute numbers or annual rates. Cumulative lifetime risk may be an additional useful metric for understanding the impact of these causes of death.

METHODS:Data on all-cause firearm, drug overdose, and motor vehicle accident deaths were obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the year 2018. Age-specific death rates were used to estimate the cumulative risk of firearm, drug overdose, and motor vehicle accident deaths from birth to age 85 after accounting for other causes of death.

RESULTS:The lifetime risk of death from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents was 0.93%(95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92%-0.94%), 1.52% (95% CI, 1.51%-1.53%), and 0.92% (95% CI,0.91%-0.93%), respectively. Black males had a 2.61% (95% CI, 2.55%-2.66%) lifetime risk of firearm death, indicating that 1 out of 38 black males will die from firearms if current death rates persist. Residents of West Virginia had a 3.54% lifetime risk of drug overdose death, equivalent to 1 out of every 28 residents dying from overdoses.

CONCLUSIONS:The lifetime risk of death from firearms, drug overdoses, and motor vehicle accidents is substantial and varies greatly across demographic subgroups and states

OR: Woman Hunting Bear Saves Couple from Kidnappers

EUGENE, Ore. – A local woman used her bear rifle to save a kidnapping victim from possibly being murdered on Sunday, keeping one of the armed assailants at bay.

In an interview with KEZI 9 News, the woman said she spotted the man, who was badly beaten, on Highway 126 near Walton as she was on her way to go bear hunting. After calling 911 the victim told her he and his girlfriend had been kidnapped, and the kidnapper was driving his car, which was parked nearby.

“He is going to kill me, and he's probably going to kill you since you are here,” the man told her.

The woman, whose identity we are not revealing, said she told the man to find a place to hide. When she saw another man walking down the highway with a handgun, she got her hunting rifle out and waited for troopers to arrive.

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