Thursday, July 22, 2021

NICS Data: Gun Sales Drop Significantly in June of 2021

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for June of 2021. There has been a significant drop from the numbers for June of 2020, a year ago. Total background checks have declined 29%, and total gun sales have declined 47% from last year. June of 2020 was a record setting month.

If we look back to June of 2019, the 2021 numbers are 40% higher for gun sales this June, than in June of 2019.

Looking to 2016, the previous record year before 2020, gun sales in June of 2021 exceeds those in June of 2016 by 12%. 

Even though June gun sales in 2021 are only 53% of the firearm sales of June of 2020, they are still the second highest number of June gun sales since NICS started keeping records in 1998. 

Historically, June gun sales are one of the three lowest months in the year for gun sales. May, June, and July are the "Summer Doldrums" for gun sales, with June and July tending to be a little lower than May.

The total NICS checks are becoming less and less representative of the total number of firearm sales.

There always was a disconnect, because there can be multiple gun sales on one NICS check. There are 20 million or more people with carry permits. There were 19.48 million carry permits over a year ago.

In 25 states, the carry permit is used as a NICS check for gun sales.  Those sales are not recorded in NICS.

With the enormous numbers of people with carry permits, some states are doing monthly or even daily NICS checks on people with permits. The federal government does not charge the states for  NICS checks.

Illinois permit rechecks accounted for over 715 thousand NICS rechecks in June of 2021; Kentucky over 301 thousand NICS rechecks; Utah had over 72 thousand. Total permit and permit rechecks for the nation were over 1.79 million of the total 3.05 million, or about 59% of the total checks.

Most of the NICS checks are no longer involved in gun sales. There are more carry permits, more carry permit rechecks and more gun sales not tracked by NICS, because they are done using the carry permit instead of another NICS check.

Gun production appears to be meeting demand. More guns are becoming available and prices are dropping.  The supply of ammunition seems to be meeting demand as well. Prices are dropping and more ammunition is being seen in stores. 

The nation is coming out of the COVID crises, and the Biden regime is meeting resistance to its extreme anti-Second Amendment policies. Both circumstances may contribute to a lower demand for guns and ammo. 

The large number of new gun owners and the large number of people with carry permits appear to be having a political effect. Contrary to the claim by those who want a disarmed population, the number of gun owners seems to be growing. The number of people of carrying guns has been growing spectacularly. Yet, the number of people who are using guns to illegally commit violence against other people does not track with the increase in gun ownership or with the increase in the number of people legally carrying guns.

The primary premise of the push for more restrictions on gun ownership and gun carry is "more guns, more crime".  As that premise is proving false, the backup premise is "more guns more suicide". That premise is also proving false.

More guns do not create more violent crimes or more suicides. If they do, the numbers are too small to measure.

The fact of record gun sales, record numbers of new gun owners, and millions of carry permits tells us very large numbers of Americans believe the utility of guns outweigh the risks, especially in uncertain times.

©2021 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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