Monday, August 15, 2022

NICS and Gun Sales Drop slightly in July of 2022


Gun sales and National Instant background Check System checks fell slightly in July, 2022.

The Supreme Court decision in NYSR&PA v Bruen case robustly protected Second Amendment rights. As expected, gun sales dropped slightly for July 2022.

The gun sales in July were about 1.19 million, about a five percent drop from the 1.25 million in July of 2021, and 2.7% lower than July of 2016, making 2022 the fourth highest July for gun sales on record.

NICS checks total were at 2.4 million, the third highest July on record. That is a 17% drop from NICS checks in 2021. Much of the drop is from the changes in Illinois law, which greatly reduced the number of background checks conducted for Firearm Owner IDentification cards, or FOID cards. The requirement to have FOID cards is being challenged in the courts.

The trend has not been reduced much, with 2022 likely to be the fourth or fifth highest year for total gun sales. About 8 million have been added to the private stock in the United States through the end of July, 2022.

Here are approximate gun sales in the last seven years' month of July:

2016: a record 1.22 million

2017: .91 million

2018: .85 million

2019: .85 million

2020: New record for July, 1.84 million

2021: 1.25 million

2022: 1.19 million

Those numbers indicate significant uncertainty and fear in the pivotal election years of 2016 and 2020. Once President Trump was elected in 2016, stability and a robust economy resulted in lower gun sales.

With the election of 2020, uncertainty and instability returned, along with Covid 19 hysteria. With President Biden in place, instability and uncertainty replaced stability and prosperity. Gun sales soared to record levels in 2020, and have remained at a new, higher normal in 2021 and 2022. Much of the demand comes with the creation of millions of new gun owners. The National Shooting Sports Foundation estimates about 13.8 million new gun owners were created in 2020 and 2021. It is likely millions more are being created in 2022.

At some point, supply will meet demand, and prices of guns will drop. It already is happening for some models. 

Supplies of the Kel-Tec P17 .22 pistol seem close to meeting demand, prices have dropped on Gun Broker to the $230 range, only 15% above suggested retail price.

The Taurus TX 22 pistol on Gun Broker is going for close to the suggested retail, while the Glock 44 .22 pistol price is now well below the suggested retail.

The new Sig Sauer P322 is still above suggested retail, but several models on Gun Broker are close to the suggested retail price.

Ammunition prices have dropped significantly. Ongoing inflation makes it difficult to know if nominal prices will ever return to those seen as recently as 2019.  There is a fair amount of .22 Long Rifle ammunition available at 6.5 cents per round, mostly Orbea, Federal, Aguila, and Blazer cartridges.  

9mm ammo is available on special at 28-33 cents per cartridge.

According to the method pioneered by Newton and Zimring and perfected by Gary Kleck  in 1991, there were about 458 million guns in private hands at the end of 2020.  Since then,  the United States has added about another 23 million, and is likely to add another six million by the end of 2022.

The total number of private firearms in the United states is expected to be 487 million by the end of 2022. It may reach 500 million by the end of 2023.

©2022 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch





No comments: