Sunday, November 13, 2022

NICS for October, 2022 Third Highest, Gun Sales Fourth Highest on Record


The National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers for October, 2022, are the third highest on record. The gun sales recorded by NICS for October, 2022 are the fourth highest on record.

This shows the trend of gun sales is softening a bit. If potential gun buyers perceive greater stability in national and international affairs, if potential gun purchasers perceive the threat of gun restrictions to have decreased because of the election and Supreme Court and lower court restrictions, sales will likely decrease.

The number of NICS checks in October 2022, were down by 6 percent from October of 2021.  The estimated total gun sales are down by 12 percent from October of 2021.

Before "shall issue" carry permits became the norm in the vast majority of states, there was a moderately consistent relationship between NICS background checks and gun sales.

With the proliferation of shall issue permits, and the popularity of those permits, the correlation between NICS checks and gun sales has become inconsistent and uncertain.

The number of NICS checks depends on the number of gun carry permits. In some states, such as Illinois and Kentucky, checks involved with permits are many times the number of checks involved with gun sales.

In Illinois, for example, in October of 2022, there were 369,511 NICS background checks for gun permits. There were about 33,318 NICS checks for gun sales.  There were 11 times as many checks for permits than there were for gun sales.

In 25 states, some, often most, permits allow people to purchase guns from federal dealers without an additional NICS check.

Illinois is not one of those states.

Using the carry permit to purchase firearms is simpler, faster, and easier
than accessing the NICS system by telephone and dealing with an FBI

As political uncertainty and racial division were ramped up by Barack
Obama and other Democrats for the last 14 years, people have been
purchasing guns in record number.

The gun sales and gun importation/export data become available one to two years after the exports/sales are made.

This is the data which has been most consistent in estimating the number of private firearms in the United States.

When the ATF data is examined two years after gun sales are made, it appears the increase in the private stock in the USA is about 87% of the gun sales. This can be explained by sales of used firearms.

Adding in October 2022 gun sales, with a correction factor of .87, shows an estimated 485.7 million privately owned firearms in the United States as of the end of October, 2022. It is possible,in some segments of the firearms purchaser population, demand is becoming saturated.

It is possible inflation, with increased fuel and food prices, has left less discretionary  income available for the purchase of firearms and ammunition.

If the Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives, which seems likely, gun sales may drop, and gun prices with them, as threats of greater political restrictions recede.

We are seeing a drop in price for popular models, and some common types of ammunition.

November and December are traditionally high months for gun sales, due to hunting seasons and Christmas.

2022 will likely end with 488 million guns in private hands.

©2022 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

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