Friday, May 14, 2021

April 2021 NICS Breaks Record, Gun Sales continue high for Month

Graphic Courtesy David Scott and Dean Weingarten

April 2021 numbers for the National Instant background Check System (NICS) set another record.  The previous record for April, in 2020, was 2,911,128. In 2021, the April NICS were 3,514,070. 

Actual firearm sale are different. Over half of NICS checks are done for carry permits or carry permit rechecks. Illinois had nearly 890,000 rechecks alone in April of 2021. 

Using our formula, the estimate for 2020 was 1,648,688 1.649 million firearms sold. The same formula, applied to 2021 gives us  1.665 million firearms sold. The increase is only 1%, but it breaks the record. 

It appears the United States has reached a new normal. Guns and ammunition are being produced as fast as they can be. Demand is almost being met. Some guns are becoming available again. Some common shotgun ammunition is available in the stores.

17 boxes of 100 rds of Federal 12 gauge target loads were available in a local Walmart this week.

Most common pistols, pump shotguns, and semi-automatic rifles are seldom found on dealers shelves. They tend to be purchased before they arrive, and leave the store shortly after they get there.

The country is deeply divided between those who believe the old, Progressive media, social media, and the Tech Oligarchs, and those who do not.

The unrest and violent riots common in many cities where leftist power is dominant has convinced many of the desireability of personal weapons, especially with the bizarre demands to defund the police and release thousands of criminals into the streets.

If the Biden administration's extreme spending plans and attempts to render the Republic into a Leftist oligarchy fail, it is likely demand will drop, the noted capitalist capability to produce things people desire, for profit, will succeed in doing so, and prices will start to fall.

The specter of inflation from all the covid crazy spending may, or may not keep prices high.

The number of privately held firearms in the United States, with the increase of 1.67 more last month, is about 471 million. The estimate is made using the method pioneered by Newton and Zimring, and extended by Gary Kleck in “Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America”.  

The United States manufactures and imports about 9.1 billion rounds of ammunition a year. That is about 20 rounds of ammunition per firearm in the United States. 

Most people have not been keeping a hundred rounds of ammunition per firearm. Many people now think that is the bare minimum. The increase in demand is showing up as bare shelves at the gun shops. It is possible the lack of ammunition is serving as a check on the demand for gun sales.

The United States has more firearms per person than any other nation on earth. It also has more ammunition. Modern ammunition lasts a very long time, at the minimum of several decades. The key to long term storage of ammunition is cool to moderate temperatures, keeping it dry, and away from contamination by oils.

Given those conditions, much hundred year old ammunition has been happily fired at the range.

Guns take a long time to wear out, with just a minimum of care; ammunition lasts for several generations. The societal effects of an armed America will be felt for many decades to come.

©2021 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dean, You have to be kidding, right, 100 rounds? Basic issue for combat is 200 rounds. I am a re loader, Trained to re load by the original owners of the RCBS company. In Vietnam I carried all of the magazines I could get my hands on plus seven bandoliers. I always has at least the equivalent of 80 magazines of ammo on me plus the grenades I could carry. I re load for 25 different calibers and 5 different gauges. Save the brass and learn to make all of the ammo you can. I cast the bullets trim the brass as needed and can make black powder if I have to. I count my ammo by the full GI can. The wounded enemy is far better than the dead enemy because it take more people off line to care for the wounded. You just step over the dead. Give the enemy enough blood leaking holes and he is out of action. The farther away the enemy is when he starts leaking blood the better. I have three scoped rifles with bipods Three more scopes waiting for rifles. Some do not need scopes. and numerous pistols for closer use. ,22s carry a miles and they can be very effective. Hits are what count use the sights. Press, Powder measure, case trimmer, melting pot molds, brass cleaner system resizer swaging (lubrisizer) press and a few other accessories can set you back several dollars but you can make any thing you might need. Primers are hard to find and you might need to make black powder, it will work in every thing. just requires a lot of cleaning. I keep about 12,000 primers in stock. 500 pounds of casting lead and several thousand wads and bags of shot. right now I cast for 10 different calibers. don't buy gold for the future buy primers and powder. I'm too old to chase them down but give me a good position and I'll pile them up. Japan was right there could be a gun behind every blade of grass. at my place any way. 471 million is a very low count. there are at least 100,000 metal lathes capable of making guns in this country. Silencers are becoming very popular. I even have the equipment to cast metal parts. Sights were put on guns for a purpose use them and stop wasting ammo on practice.