The October, 2024 National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers are in. They do not show a significant difference in the trends. Both October gun sales and NICS checks are fifth highest for October, which has been a consistent theme in 2024. While a bit lower than in 2023, the gun sales and NICS checks are still high by historical standards.
Gun sales for October, 2024 are estimated at 1.26 million firearms, about 94% of what the sales were in October of 2023. NICS checks for October were about 5% higher than they were in 2023. NICS checks and NICS related gun sales are only somewhat correlated to each other. NICS checks are being used for other purposes than gun sales. State policies regarding NICS change. Some states require high numbers of NICS checks unrelated to gun sales. Most states do not.
The bar graph shows gun sales by type for months in 2023 (lines) and 2024 (bars). It is obvious the trend for 2024 is a bit less than for 2023, with the exception of August. August gun sales were probably increased because of the assassination attempt on former president and then candidate for president Donald Trump.
The election of 2024 has confirmed former President Trump will be the future President Trump, only the second president to perform this feat of non-consecutive terms. As of this writing, there has been very little unrest in the forms of protests or riots against the second Trump term. If this trend continues, firearm sales are likely to slump, as fears of civil unrest wane. If President Trump is able to succeed in bringing an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a slump in firearm sales is almost certain. The supply of firearms has been very close to supply in the last few months. This is clear because of falling prices for many popular models. This is a golden age for the affordability of firearms and ammunition. If the Ukraine war is ended, expect ammunition prices to fall as more production goes into supplies for civilian sale instead of war consumption.
Domestic tranquility is not certain. Domestic unrest may increase significantly as the inauguration approaches and during a second Trump term. The mandate of the popular vote and the overall landslide of the 2024 elections in favor of conservatives weighs against domestic unrest. We will know in a couple of months.
November and December tend to be the highest months for gun sales. Sales should increase in the next two months. They will be lower than in 2023 if current trends hold.
Several Second Amendment cases are pending in the courts. The most likely to have an effect soon would be the case out of Maryland on whether a ban on semi-automatic rifles, known by the more deceptive and political term of "assault weapons" could be heard next year. There are challenges against "gun free zones" and against bans on carry by states against residents of other states. If the Trump administration is able to pass a national reciprocity law, it would incentivize more gun sales, as would a rejection of bans on semi-automatic rifles.
©2024 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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