Thursday, March 09, 2017

NICS checks in the Trump Era: February 2017 Third Highest on Record

The NICS checks for February, 2017 were 2,234,817.  That is the third highest number of NICS checks for any February. The highest was in 2016, with 2,613,074. The second highest February was in 2013, with 2,309,393.  Both of those were driven by fear of strong gun control measures that might be passed by President Obama. 

The Trump era of the National Instant Criminal Background  Check System  (NICS) checks is off to a good start. There have been four presidents that have had NICS checks done while they were in office.

There were two years and two months of NICS checks under President Clinton.  They totaled 18,574,000 checks.  During that period the NICS system was clarified.  Court challenges restricted how the checks were done and how long they could be stored.

They were done for the full eight years of the two terms of President Bush, totaling 77 million checks. 34,533,772 in the first term and 42,876,236 in the second term. The numbers surged after 9/11.

They were done for the full eight years of the two terms of President Obama, totaling 157 million checks. 64,490,694 in the first term, and 92,742,463 in the second term. Numbers reached new records as several restrictions on gun ownership and sales circulated among the states and were championed by the Democrat party and President Obama.

It was anticipated that firearm sales and NICS checks would drop with a Trump presidency. The urgency of firearms purchases grew with fear of infringements on firearms ownership by a President Hillary Clinton. The fear of a Hillary Clinton Supreme Court hostile to the Second Amendment, also boosted sales.

NICS checks remain unexpectedly strong under President Trump.  January 2017 NICS were 80% of January 2016 NICS.  February 2017 NICS were 85% of 2016 numbers.

The unhinged unwillingness to accept a Trump Presidency by the left, with attendant riots and violence, could be a motivation for higher firearm sales.

Unreasonable fear of a Trump Presidency from the left could boost sales as well.

Structural increases in the number of firearms owners may have increased the base level of sales.

There has been a gradual increase in the use of NICS for things other than firearm sales.  We will not know how much that is until the BATF figures come out in about two years.  The increases are for such transactions as the sales of suppressors/silencer, gun carry permits, and even checks on school teachers.

Kentucky has contributed to the number by running NICS checks on every concealed carry permit holder every month. Kentucky performs nearly three million checks every year.

The average ratio, over 15 years, is a little less than .6 NICS checks for each firearm added to the private stock.

If that ratio holds true, about 2.5 million guns were added in the first two months of 2017. 

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch


Tim said...

Maybe because there are so many discount sales?

Anonymous said...

I wonder just how many weapons are out there that are not figured or counted in the system. I know there were two .69 caliber Springfield's On display in one gun shop years ago and they were in nearly perfect condition and were original flintlocks. there are many thousands of antique guns not in the system that are in working condition and just as deadly as the day they were made. I have a .31 caliber .36 caliber and a .44 caliber double molds for casting round shot and conical bullets. You need to use pure lead for casting them. they are original designs of solid brass. I once made a cap lock rifle for a school project and a neighbor brought in an original .32 caliber cap lock to show and compare for the class to see as a part of my history class report. after school. I carefully examined the .32 caliber rifle and found it to be loaded. what a surprise that was for the neighbor. it had been in her attic for decades. I also made a powder horn and a possible bag. I got an A on the project. My grand father carved horns for a hobby and showed me how.