Saturday, December 09, 2017

Political Benefits of National Reciprocity for Republicans

The U.S. House of Representatives is supposed to vote on H.R. 38, recently amended to be the "Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017".  The vote is expected to occur today, 6 December, 2017. (The bill passed the House 231-198)

Voting for and passing the bill in the House, and then in the Senate, is a smart political move on the part of Republicans.  Democrats oppose the bill for partisan ideological purposes. Opposing an armed population is in Democrats (Progressives) DNA. That opposition has never made any real sense.

Every state in the United  States has law that allows for the issuance of permits for the carry of concealed weapons. It is in the interest of people in those states who have concealed weapons permits for those permits to be valid in the rest of the United States.

People who can legally carry concealed weapons have been found to be exceptionally law abiding. Evidence exists that the carry of concealed weapons decreases the violent crime rate a small amount. At the worst, the evidence shows that the crime rate is not increased.

The leadership of the Democrats come from states that have resisted the restoration of Second Amendment rights with all the power and tools at their disposal.  Those states are Deep Blue California, New York, Illinois, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island.  Senators there do not face significant Republican opposition.

If the Republicans in the House pass Concealed Carry Reciprocity, which seems very likely, pressure will mount in the Senate to pass the bill as well. The Senate has a small majority of Republicans, 52 to 48.

Every Republican Senator comes from a state that has either a Shall issue law, where every person that may legally purchase a handgun from a federal dealer can obtain a permit to carry one concealed, or Constitutional Carry, where the same group of people do not need a permit to carry concealed.  18 Republican senators are from Constitutional Carry states, 34 are from Shall Issue states.  Of Democrat Senators, 16 are from restrictive May Issue states, 24 are from Shall Issue states, and 6 are from Constitutional Carry states.

Image from wikipedia

It will be a difficult trick for Senators from Shall Issue and Constitutional Carry states to explain why they voted to prevent their constituents from exercising their Second Amendment rights in other states.

8 Democrat senators will be running in states that President Trump won in 2016. Six of those states have Shall Issue concealed carry permits. Two of them have Constitutional Carry. Wisconsin has Shall Issue and  a Constitutional Carry bill that is being considered in the state legislature. Concealed Carry reciprocity is a wedge issue that makes those Democrat senator's seats more precarious.

Shall issue: Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin

is a radical far left lesbian feminist. Her campaign ads in 2010 showed her with a man and children, implying that she was heterosexual and married, though that was not true.

Shall issue : Florida, Bill Nelson

Shall issue: Montana, Jon Tester.

Shall issue: North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp

Shall issue: Ohio, Sherrod Brown

Shall Issue: Indiana, Joe Donnelly

Constitutional Carry: West Virginia, Joe Manchin

Constitutional Carry: Missouri, Claire McCaskill

The Republicans need to show significant differences from their Democrat opponents. Donald Trump ran on national reciprocity for concealed carry. This  issue can energize Second Amendment supporters to vote for the Republican, or at least, vote against a Senator the voted against exercise of the Second Amendment.

It makes sense for the Republicans to force a vote on the bill. It would make sense for the eight Democrat senators above to vote with the Republicans and pass the bill, to aid in their re-election.

That does not mean they will. Infringing on the Second Amendment has become part of modern Democrat's DNA.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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Anonymous said...

The Problem is the supreme court over turned all J walking and vagrancy laws many years ago and some states are still enforcing them as if they could care less what the law of the land is, the same thing will happen with national reciprocity and people are going to get killed because you can not retrain corrupt ignorant cops. they will still be stopping and shooting people that are legally carrying. because most cops are chicken shit cowards pinned on a badge.

C. S. P. Schofield said...

So, of the Republicans, this is a double opportunity. Either they pass national reciprocity, or they spotlight Democrats in vulnerable seats who vote against trusting citizens.