The National Instant background Check System numbers decreased significantly for November of 2025 compared to November of 2024. An increase in firearm sales is normal for November. It happened in 2025, but firearm sales are 7% lower than those in November of 2024. About 1.41 million firearm sales occurred in November of 2025, as estimated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation. 1.51 million firearms were estimated to be sold in November last year. The number of background checks for November was much lower than expected, about 2.09 million. It is the lowest number of background checks in November since 2014, more than a decade ago. From NSSF:
The November 2025 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,408,230 is a decrease of 7.0 percent compared to the November 2024 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,514,773. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2025 FBI NICS figure of 2,005,667 reflects a 20.1 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,509,368 in November 2024.
The estimate of firearms sales is following a similar pattern to what happened in President Trump's first term. Firearm sales were higher in the presidential election year. They dropped as President Trump's policies started to produce greater domestic and international stability. The same effect seems to be happening in his second term.
The more stable the world becomes, the lower the demand for firearms in the United States. The more stable the USA becomes domestically, the lower the demand for firearms. Hunting seasons are common in November. Firearm sales increased as expected. December usually has higher sales than November, but not always. November NICS checks were higher than in December in the presidential election year of 2008, when Barack Obama was elected. If President Trump and the Republican Congress are successful in bringing about peace and prosperity, expect firearm sales to continue to decline.
A potential upside is the continuing political and judicial battle to remove silencers, short barreled rifles (SBR), short barreled shotguns (SBS), and any other weapons (AOW) from the confining and dubious restrictions of the National Firearms Act (NFA). The tax on these items has been reduced from $200 for silencers, SBR, and SBS to zero. The tax has been reduced for AOW from $5 to zero. The intrusive regulatory requirements for applications, pictures, and fingerprints remain, at least for now. Those requirements are being challenged in the courts. At this time, the Republicans do not have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster.
The popularity of silencers has skyrocketed. The easier silencers/suppressors become to legally obtain, the higher the demand for firearms which can effectively use silencers. If silencers become as legally simple to obtain as rifles and shotguns, expect a considerable bump in sales of both silencers and firearms which can easily use them. The number of rifles and pistols which have threaded barrels is already on the rise.
The easier short barreled rifles and shotguns become to legally obtain, the higher demand for short barreled firearms with shoulder stocks. If SBR are taken from the NFA, expect higher sales. Expect higher sales of pistols which can accept a shoulder stock. If SBS are taken from the NFA, expect pistols dedicated to firing shot rounds. Bullpup shotguns such as the Keltec KS7 and others, and short barreled firearms which shoot shotgun shells, but do not have a shoulder stock, such as the Mossberg Shockwave are already meeting some of the demand in this area.
The reduction of the NFA tax to zero for the above items goes into effect on January 1, 2025.
©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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