Saturday, November 29, 2014

FL: Remarkable Poll in Favor of Campus Carry 15-1

The article with this poll was first published on Friday afternoon a week ago, 21 November, 2014, the day after the shooting at Florida State University (FSU).   I wrote about it the next day.   At that time the ratio of second amendment supporters to disarmists was a very high 12 to 1. On Saturday morning, about 6 a.m. the total number of votes cast were 2740.   As you can see from the screenshot, today, 28 November about 10 a.m., the number has increased to 4,330, and the ratio has increase from 12 to 1 to an astonishing 15-1!   The poll below is closer to what we commonly see.  It was done in a Michigan publication.

Most second amendment related polls result in ratios from 3-10 to 1.  The result of this poll falls well within the "normal" range, at 4-1.

Online polls essentially measure an "intensity ratio".  That is, the ratio of those who are motivated enough to answer an online poll, one way or another.   Why is the ratio in the Michigan poll so much lower than that in the Florida poll?

Both polls address second amendment related issues, but the questions asked are much different, and the responses offered are significantly different as well.

The question in the Michigan poll is a simple emotional one about "feelings".  It is not a policy decision.  It does not ask anything about law or firearms policy.   It only lists two responses, yes and no.  In the Michigan article preceding the poll, significantly more space is devoted to people who "feel" uncomfortable with a Realtor carrying a gun than people who approve of such action.

In the Florida Poll, the question is all about policy and logic, not about emotion.   The article preceding the poll gives information about the policy decisions.  Most space is given to the attorney for Florida Carry, who outlines the arguments for student carry, while the opposition arguments are given a fraction of the space.   The respondents can choose between four policy decisions.

Even given the disparity of the space given to opposition arguments, the 15-1 ratio stands out.  Does this tell us anything useful?

First, a disclaimer.   We do not know what audience this poll reached.  It is not a scientific poll.   It is simply a rough measure of intensity.   But taking that into account, the lesson that I gather from the above is that the arguments made in favor of second amendment solutions are highly persuasive, if they are heard.   It reinforces what I have observed for several decades.  When second amendment supporters are able to get their message to the public, they win.

Definition of  disarmist 

©2014 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
Link to Gun Watch

No comments: