The National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers for firearm sales and back ground checks in April, 2025 show a continuation of the slight decline we have been seeing the last year. April of 2025 gun sales were about 3.7% less than those of April of 2024. April of 2025 background checks were about 3.2% less than those of April 2024. If you look at the last 26 years of April data for adjusted NICS, which is a close approximation of firearm sales, 2025, while lower than the last five years, is close, even a little higher, than the sales seen since the election of Barack Obama to his second term in 2012.
Firearm sales have been at historically high numbers for more than a decade. Several factors have contributed to these sales.
The importance of the political scene cannot be overstated. President Barack Obama declared his goal was to "fundamentally transform the United States". He came very close to doing so. The two elections of President Donald Trump, with the disastrous presidency of Obama surrogate Joseph Biden during the intervening four years, have been a strong counter revolution against the policies of the Obama/Biden presidencies. The resulting uncertainty and reasonable fear of absurd economic, international, and domestic policies sent firearm sales skyrocketing. As the second Trump term unfolds, unraveling the absurdities of the Obama/Biden policies continue to present an unknown, if more hopeful future.
Technological change is another important factor. Decreasing costs of firearms manufacture, brought about by less expensive materials, greater automation in manufacture, and strong international and domestic competition, make very good firearms available at prices far below comparable firearms only two decades ago. The prices have to be compared in constant dollars because of inflation. It is obvious an ordinary worker in the United States can purchase very good firearms for far less expenditure of labor. Technological change continues to offer innovative and interesting firearms, helping to avoid market saturation. While there have been some times where ammunition supply was less than market demand, ammunition today is less expensive than it was even 30 years ago, and far less expensive than 60 years ago.
The last 50 years of restoring rights protected by the Second Amendment are a third reason. We are still far from the state of rights protected by the Second Amendment which existed when the Bill of Rights was ratified in 1791. We have restored much of what was lost from 1791 to 1970. There is permitless (Constitutional Carry) in 29 states. Handguns have become more popular than long guns. Suppressors, which appear to be close to being removed from the National Firearms Act (NFA), have been, in large part, legitimized. The Supreme Court has held, and affirmed, the right to keep arms and to carry them for protection outside the home, are individual, fundamental, Constitutionally protected, rights.
The chart below shows how popular handguns have become. The blue line and bars show handgun sales. The green line and bars show long gun sales. The orange and red lines and bars show "other" and "multiple" firearm sales.
"Other" most likely represents the sales of finished receivers which can be assembled into either pistols or rifles, depending on the wishes of the purchaser.
This correspondent expects the policies of the Trump administration to succeed. If they do so, stability in prices and in domestic and international tranquility will have a dampening effect on gun sales. A moderate counter to this could result from increasing prosperity. If silencers are removed from the NFA, an increase in sales of firearms threaded for accessories, or integrally suppressed, is likely.
©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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